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Market Outlook for India – 13 February 2026

nifty sensex going down

Market Summary

IndexClose Change
Nifty 5025,471.10▼336.10 pts (–1.30%)
BSE Sensex82,626.76▼1,048.16 pts (–1.25%)
Nifty Bank60,186.65▼553.10 pts (–0.91%)
  • Market breadth: About 1,236 stocks advanced on the NSE while around 2,784 declined; nearly 148 remained unchanged. Mid-cap and small-cap indices fell ~2 %, showing broad-based selling.
  • Volatility: India VIX climbed to ~13.3, indicating higher volatility.
  • Sector performance:
Sector index (Nifty/BSE)Approx. change on 13 Feb 2026Notes
IT▼5 %Worst performer; heavy selling after an AI-triggered technology sell‑off.
Media▲<1 %Only sector to finish marginally positive.
Energy, Metal, Realty▼2–3 %Commodities and realty stocks faced profit‑taking.
FMCG, Telecom, Infra, Auto, Power, PSU, Oil & Gas▼1 % or moreBroad-based decline across cyclical and defensive segments.

Top Gain­ers and Losers

Nifty 50 Constituents

Top gainers% changeNarrative
Bajaj Finance+2.5 %Short covering after recent weakness; strong credit growth guidance.
Eicher Motors+1.5 %Better-than-expected sales outlook for Royal Enfield models.
SBI Life Insurance+1.3 %Expectations of healthy quarterly results; defensive buying.
State Bank of India (SBI)+1.2 %Banking sector resilience and valuation comfort.
Cipla+1.1 %Continued momentum from strong earnings.
Top losers% changeNarrative
Hindalco Industries–5.7 %Disappointed investors with a 45 % YoY profit decline.
Hindustan Unilever–5.3 %Commentary pointed to volume-led growth resuming only from FY27.
Trent–5.2 %High valuations prompted profit‑taking.
Adani Enterprises–4.7 %Selling pressure ahead of key index rebalancing.
ONGC–4.2 %Strong Q3 profit but interim dividend of ₹6.25 per share failed to enthuse traders.

Broader Market Movers

Top gainers% change
GE Power India+20 %
Engineers India+10.5 %
Linde India+7 %
Vardhman Textiles+5.2 %
Aditya Birla Fashion+4.9 %
Top losers% change
Muthoot Finance–11.8 %
Alkem Laboratories–8.0 %
Firstsource Solutions–7.3 %
Eris Lifesciences–7.0 %
Adani Power–6.6 %

What Moved the Market?

  1. AI disruption fears: The sell‑off was triggered by an Anthropic-driven “automation shock”. Investors worried that new AI‑powered tools could disrupt IT services, causing the Nifty IT index to slide over 5 %. This sentiment spilled over into other sectors.
  2. Weak global cues: Strong U.S. job data earlier in the week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, leading to a rise in the U.S. dollar and a drop in U.S. equities. Asian and European markets were largely lower, and emerging-market indices also fell, weighing on sentiment.
  3. Profit‑taking after rally: Both the Nifty and Sensex had rallied sharply in previous sessions. Valuations were stretched, prompting traders to book profits as investors awaited fresh triggers.
  4. Broader risk‑off mood: Crude oil prices dipped, and geopolitical tensions in West Asia added to caution. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares, while domestic institutions provided limited support.
  5. Rupee and yields: The rupee weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar; government bond yields remained firm, reinforcing concerns over liquidity.

Global Cues

  • US markets: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were marginally lower (around –0.1 % to –0.2 %) after strong U.S. employment data suggested interest rates may stay elevated. This weighed on risk assets globally.
  • Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 was flat, reflecting cautious sentiment.
  • Asia: The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell about 1.4 %, and emerging market indices slipped ~0.8 %, highlighting weakness across major Asian markets.
  • Commodities: Brent crude eased but remained above US $75 per barrel. Gold was steady as investors balanced risk aversion with expectations of higher rates.

Stocks to Watch & Corporate Updates

Company / stockKey update and rationale
Coal IndiaReported a consolidated Q3 net profit of ₹9,069 crore and announced an interim dividend of ₹5.25 per share. The stock may remain in focus for dividend yield.
ONGCQ3 net profit rose 22.6 % year‑on‑year; announced an interim dividend of ₹6.25 per share with a record date of 18 Feb 2026.
Indian Hotels (IHCL)Q3 net profit jumped 50.9 % to ₹954.24 crore, aided by an exceptional gain from selling its stake in Taj Safaris JV.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL)Management guided that the next growth cycle could begin from FY27; near‑term margins are expected at 22–23 %.
Hindalco IndustriesQ3 net profit slumped 45 % YoY to ₹2,049 crore; rising costs and weaker aluminium prices weighed.
Honasa Consumer (Mamaearth)Q3 net profit nearly doubled to ₹50 crore; revenue up 16 % YoY; Flipkart settlement adjustments affected revenue recognition.
Bharat ForgeQ3 consolidated net profit increased 28 % to ₹272.8 crore; revenue up 24.9 %, but standalone profit weakened due to new labour code compliance and tariffs.
Dabur IndiaStarted construction of a ₹400 crore manufacturing facility at Tindivanam, Tamil Nadu to produce FMCG products in phases.
IRCTCQ3 net profit rose 15.6 % YoY to ₹394.3 crore; revenue grew 18.4 % YoY to ₹1,449.4 crore.
LupinQ3 net profit surged 37.5 % YoY to ₹1,175.6 crore; revenue increased 24.3 % YoY despite exceptional provisions for antitrust litigation and settlement costs.
BioconReported net profit of ₹143.8 crore, up from ₹25.1 crore a year earlier; revenue grew 9.2 % but missed analysts’ estimates due to one‑time exceptional losses.

Technical View and Levels

  • Nifty 50: The index closed slightly above its 20‑day moving average (around 25,471) and above the 200‑DMA (~25,293). Immediate support lies in the 25,300–25,500 area; a breach could lead to the 25,100–25,000 zone. On the upside, resistance is seen near 25,800, followed by 26,000. The index is expected to remain range‑bound between 25,500 and 26,000 in the near term.
  • BSE Sensex: Support is placed around 82,000-82,400, with major resistance near 84,000–84,500. A break below 82,000 may trigger further downside, while recovery above 83,000 could see a move towards 84,000.
  • Nifty Bank: The banking index is holding around 60,000 (psychological support). Resistance is at 60,500–61,000. Sustained trading below 60,000 may open the door to 59,500, while strength above 60,800 could attract renewed buying.

Outlook for the Next Trading Day (14 Feb 2026)

The overall tone for the next session is cautiously negative. Key factors to watch include global cues (U.S. inflation and bond yields), further developments in AI‑driven automation, and corporate earnings announcements. With most sectoral indices slipping and valuations still elevated, volatility is likely to continue. Traders should monitor support levels around 25,300 (Nifty) and 60,000 (Bank Nifty). A relief bounce is possible if overseas markets stabilize, but broader participation is necessary for a sustained recovery. Defensive sectors (pharma, FMCG) and quality large caps may attract interest, while technology and metals could remain under pressure in the near term.