Today’s Stock Market Trade Setup for 3rd August 2026 | Can the Nifty extend its earnings-led rally?

GIFT Nifty futures were trading 116 points higher at 24,564 on Monday morning, indicating a positive opening for Indian equities after the Nifty gained nearly 2 percent last week on strong quarterly earnings and softer crude prices. Domestic benchmarks have risen for three straight sessions, with analysts expecting the positive bias to continue as healthy macro data and robust first quarter results underpin sentiment. Traders enter the session focused on the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy decision, fresh PMI prints and global risk cues.

According to NSE IX data, GIFT Nifty was up 0.47 percent in early trade, suggesting the Nifty 50 could build on Friday’s close near 24,383.60. The recent rally has been supported by the index holding above its 50-day exponential moving average on the daily chart, a level that has acted as a trend filter for short term participants. With the market coming off a three-session winning streak, intraday volatility around key technical levels is likely as traders reassess positions ahead of the RBI policy outcome.

Nifty futures are pointing to a test of resistance zones on the headline index, while sectoral indices such as banking and information technology will be watched for confirmation of breadth. Bank heavyweights and large cap IT names have been central to the earnings narrative, and their early moves could set the tone for the broader market. India VIX, the volatility gauge, has slipped to relatively low levels, which can amplify the impact of any surprise from global or domestic data.

Index Performance

Benchmark and volatility indicators are entering the session with a constructive setup, though the spot levels on cash indices will only be confirmed after the opening bell.

Index	Close	Move & % Change	Comments
GIFT Nifty	24,564	+116 pts (+0.47%)	Indicates firm start, tracks positive bias after last week’s near 2% Nifty gain.
India VIX	11.76	-0.36 pts (-3%)	Volatility gauge eased, reflecting lower perceived near term market risk.

The key driver for the recent uptrend has been earnings, with domestic markets extending gains as companies reported strong first quarter numbers across several sectors. According to exchange data, the Nifty advanced nearly 2 percent over the previous week, helped by easing crude oil prices and supportive global cues. Analysts cited “healthy domestic macros and a strong Q1 earnings season” as reasons for expecting Indian equities to trade with a positive bias in the near term. That backdrop sets up Monday’s session as a continuation test of whether earnings momentum can offset event risk from central banks and geopolitics.

Sectorally, banks, consumption and select cyclicals have benefited from the macro and earnings narrative, while rate sensitive pockets remain sensitive to the RBI’s stance. Information technology has been tracking global tech sentiment and the movement in US equity futures, which were modestly higher in early Asian trade. Any sustained weakness in global risk assets could weigh on export oriented sectors, even as domestic demand driven names stay supported by local data. Traders will also keep an eye on oil linked sectors as crude prices adjust to developments in West Asia and the US Iran dynamic.

Sectoral Performance

With the previous week’s gains driven by broad based participation, the opening tone across key sectoral indices will be watched closely for confirmation of trend.

Sector/Index	Direction	Key Drivers
Nifty Bank	positive bias	Supported by strong Q1 earnings and healthy domestic macros.
Nifty IT	tracking global tech	Influenced by US futures, currency moves and global risk appetite.
Oil & gas	event driven	Sensitive to crude price swings and geopolitical developments.

Individual stocks in focus will largely be those that have recently reported results or are directly exposed to the macro triggers in play. Large cap financials and lenders, which have seen buying interest from both foreign and domestic institutions, are likely to remain active as investors position for the RBI policy. Export oriented IT majors could react to overnight moves in the yen and dollar, as currency volatility affects margin expectations and hedging strategies. Oil marketing companies and upstream energy names may see position adjustments as traders respond to the sharp overnight move in crude.

Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 277 crore on Friday, according to exchange data, extending the trend of incremental foreign inflows. Domestic institutional investors added to the positive flow picture, with net equity purchases of Rs 2,260 crore in the same session. Market breadth has reflected this supportive flow backdrop in recent days, while India VIX fell 3 percent to settle at 11.76, indicating subdued expectations of near term volatility.

Key Market Statistics

Flows and key risk indicators provide the immediate context for Monday’s trade setup.

Statistic	Value/Change	Context
FPI net flows	Rs 277 crore bought	Foreign investors extended buying in Friday’s session.
DII net flows	Rs 2,260 crore bought	Domestic institutions added significant support to equities.
India VIX	11.76, down 3%	Lower volatility ahead of RBI policy and macro data releases.
USD/INR	95.43, rupee +7 paise	Gains driven by foreign inflows and RBI support, per RBI data.

On the technical front, the Nifty’s overall trend is described as positive as the index sustains above its critical 50 day exponential moving average on the daily chart. For short term traders, immediate support is placed at 24,200, a level that has been highlighted as the first downside cushion. On the higher side, resistance is seen around 24,500, which aligns closely with the GIFT Nifty indication and could act as the initial supply zone if the opening gap holds. A decisive move beyond this band, or a failure to hold above support, will likely shape intraday strategies.

Global cues are mixed at the start of the week. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was down about 1 percent in early trade, while Japan’s Topix fell 1.6 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4 percent, according to regional market data. S&P 500 futures were up 0.4 percent, Euro Stoxx 50 futures gained 0.3 percent and Hang Seng futures were little changed, pointing to a nuanced risk backdrop rather than a clear trend.

Global Cues

Overnight moves in key global assets frame the external environment for Indian traders.

Market/Asset	Movement	Notes
MSCI Asia ex Japan	down ~1%	Regional equities under pressure in early trade.
Japan Topix	down 1.6%	Weakness amid heightened FX intervention concerns.
Australia S&P/ASX 200	down 0.4%	Tracking global risk sentiment and commodities.
S&P 500 futures	up 0.4%	Indicates mildly positive US equity open.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures	up 0.3%	Suggests firmer European start.
Hang Seng futures	little changed	Reflects cautious stance on China related risk.
Brent crude (indicative)	down about $4/bbl	Fell after US held off fresh Iran strike, easing supply concerns.
Gold	higher	Gained as oil tumbled, slightly easing inflation and rate worries.
USD/JPY	yen up >1% to 155.39	Sudden yen strength keeps traders alert for further intervention.

Oil prices tumbled by about 4 dollars a barrel after the US President held off on a fresh attack on Iran, seeking a quick deal that could halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The yen leapt more than 1 percent to around 155.39 per dollar in a move that has traders watching for further joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington to support Japan’s currency. Gold rose as the drop in oil prices slightly eased concerns about inflation and higher interest rates, adding another layer to the global macro mix.

Domestically, investors will track the RBI’s monetary policy decision and India’s Manufacturing and Services PMI data through the week, both of which can recalibrate expectations on growth and rates. With India VIX at low levels and flows supportive, the immediate question for Monday’s trade is whether the Nifty can convincingly clear the 24,500 resistance zone and extend its earnings led rally. Securities in the futures and options ban list are absent today, according to exchange data, which gives traders a relatively clean slate to position around these catalysts.