Market Outlook – India (20 Feb 2026)
Market snapshot
| Index | Closing level | Change (pts) | % change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensex | 82,814.71 | +316.57 | +0.38 % | Rebounded from morning weakness; remains ~4 % below its 52‑week high. |
| Nifty 50 | 25,571.25 | +116.90 | +0.46 % | Clawed back previous session’s loss; closed above 25,550. |
| Nifty Bank | 61,172.00 | +432.45 | +0.71 % | Buying in PSU banks and private banks lifted the index to a record high. |
Market breadth:
On the NSE about 1,531 stocks advanced, 1,623 declined and 110 were unchanged. Around 41 stocks hit fresh 52‑week highs while 140 touched 52‑week lows. There were 70 stocks in upper circuit and 70 in lower circuit.
Institutional flows:
Provisional data from the previous session (19 Feb) indicated foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutions were net sellers (~₹880 crore and ₹596 crore respectively). The muted flows continued on 20 Feb as participants awaited clarity on global cues.
Sectoral performance
| Sector/index | % change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty PSU Bank | +1.68 % | Hit a new all‑time high on strong results and policy support; stocks like Bharat Electronics, NTPC and SBI rallied. |
| Nifty CPSE (public sector enterprises) | +1.10 % | Renewed buying in government‑controlled companies ahead of expected divestment/privatisation plans. |
| Nifty Metal | ~+0.5 % | Higher iron‑ore prices and renewed infrastructure push aided metal shares; Hindalco and Tata Steel advanced. |
| Nifty Private Bank | ~+0.5 % | Recovery in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank as bond yields stabilised. |
| Nifty FMCG | ~+0.37 % | Defensive buying; Hindustan Unilever and ITC supported. |
| Nifty Auto | ~0 % | Mixed; Tata Motors underperformed while Maruti and M&M gained on sales optimism. |
| Nifty IT | –0.8 % | The day’s laggard; profit‑booking after recent rally and worries over U.S. tech spending. Tech Mahindra, Infosys and HCL Tech fell. |
| Nifty Media | –0.6 % (approx.) | Dragged by Zee Entertainment and Sun TV on profit‑taking. |
PSU banks, metals and energy led advances, while IT and media sectors witnessed selling. Broader indices were mixed – selective mid‑cap industrial and capital‑goods stocks outperformed whereas small‑caps saw widespread profit‑booking.
Top gainers and losers (Nifty‑50)
| Top gainers | Price (₹) | % change |
|---|---|---|
| Hindalco Industries | 935.70 | +3.32 % |
| NTPC | 372.95 | +2.68 % |
| Larsen & Toubro | 4,380.60 | +2.34 % |
| SBI Life Insurance | 2,080.00 | +1.81 % |
| Coal India | 423.55 | +1.78 % |
| Hindustan Unilever | 2,314.50 | +1.54 % |
| Power Grid Corporation | 298.95 | +1.46 % |
| Top losers | Price (₹) | % change |
|---|---|---|
| Kwality Walls India | 27.73 | –3.01 % |
| Tech Mahindra | 1,456.90 | –1.51 % |
| Infosys | 1,353.20 | –1.26 % |
| Grasim Industries | 2,832.80 | –1.10 % |
| HCL Technologies | 1,436.50 | –0.96 % |
Volume leaders: NTPC, Power Grid and Coal India recorded high trading volumes; the small‑cap highlight was Novartis India, which surged 20% after a promoter stake sale announcement.
What moved the market
- Recovery from early weakness: The morning session opened lower following weak global cues and a sell‑off in U.S. markets. However, bargain buying in large‑cap stocks-particularly in capital‑goods and PSU bank names-triggered a sharp rebound. The Sensex recovered over 225 points from the day’s low.
- PSU bank surge: Renewed optimism about government policy support and strong quarterly earnings led to a rally in PSU banks and CPSE stocks. Bank Nifty touched a record high as State Bank of India, Bharat Electronics and NTPC gained.
- Profit‑booking in IT: After a strong run, IT heavyweights faced selling pressure amid concerns over U.S. technology spending and rising geopolitical risks. Tech Mahindra and Infosys were among the top losers.
- Broad market participation: Large caps outperformed mid and small caps, signalling a risk‑off bias. Many small‑cap names fell as investors locked in profits.
- Volatility and macro factors: The India VIX volatility index spiked over 6%, reflecting investor nervousness. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and firm crude‑oil prices (~US$72 per barrel) weighed on sentiment. Domestic macro data were light, but traders monitored signs of inflation moderation and awaited manufacturing/service PMI data later in the week.
Global cues
- US markets: Wall Street ended lower overnight (S&P 500 –0.28 %, Dow –0.54 %, Nasdaq – 0.31 %) as investors trimmed risk ahead of the weekend amid rising geopolitical tensions and speculation about U.S. interest‑rate cuts. Private‑equity stocks dragged indices lower.
- Asia: Early Asian trading was mixed-Japan’s Nikkei slipped >1 % while South Korea’s Kospi rose over 1 %. Chinese mainland markets were shut for Lunar New Year holidays. Sentiment was cautious due to U.S.–Iran tensions.
- Currency & commodities: The Indian rupee traded steady near recent levels. Brent crude hovered around US$72 per barrel, with traders worried about supply disruptions. Gold prices firmed as a safe‑haven play.
Stocks to watch for the next session
| Stock | Rationale |
|---|---|
| ABB India | Reported Q4 CY25 revenue growth of 5.7 % to ₹3,557 crore but net profit fell 18 % YoY to ₹432.85 crore. Announced a final dividend of ₹29.95/share. Shares rallied on expectation of strong order book and capex opportunities. |
| CIE Automotive India | Consolidated profit grew 10.4 % YoY to ₹204.3 crore and revenue up 13.4 % to ₹2,393 crore, attracting investor interest. |
| Novartis India | Promoter Novartis AG agreed to sell its entire 70.68 % stake to WaveRise Investments, ChrysCapital Fund X, and Two Infinity Partners, triggering a 20 % surge. |
| RailTel & Pace Digitek | Received an ₹89 crore contract for IP‑based video surveillance in railway coaches; RailTel also won a ₹35.5 crore signalling project. |
| Texmaco Rail & Engineering | Signed a joint‑venture agreement with Rail Vikas Nigam to manufacture rolling stock; may benefit from increased rail capex. |
| Zydus Lifesciences | U.S. FDA completed a pre‑approval inspection of its Unit 9 facility with no observations, lifting sentiment. |
| PB Fintech | The digital‑insurance platform emerged as the top large‑cap gainer (≈+2.6 %) amid positive growth outlook; momentum could continue. |
Corporate updates
- ABB India results: The company’s Q4 CY25 net profit fell 18.08 % YoY to ₹432.85 crore due to higher input costs, but revenue rose 5.71 % to ₹3 557.01 crore. Orders in the quarter jumped 52 % to ₹4 096 crore, and the board recommended a ₹29.95/share final dividend (record date 2 May 2026). Management highlighted strong demand in data centres, railways and renewables.
- CIE Automotive India results: Consolidated profit increased 10.4% YoY to ₹204.3 crore and revenue grew 13.4 % to ₹2 393 crore in Q4 CY25.
- Novartis India stake sale: Novartis AG will divest its 70.68% stake in Novartis India to private‑equity funds WaveRise Investments and ChrysCapital Fund X. The buyers have also announced an open offer for another 26%. Novartis India hit the upper circuit (20%) on the news.
- RailTel/Pace Digitek orders: The consortium secured an ₹89 crore order to implement a video surveillance system across LHB railway coaches, plus a ₹35.5 crore signalling project. The orders will be executed over 24 months.
- Texmaco Rail joint venture: The company signed a joint‑venture agreement with Rail Vikas Nigam to manufacture rolling stock, expanding its rail EPC capabilities.
- Zydus Lifesciences inspection: The U.S. FDA completed a pre‑approval inspection at Zydus’ Unit 9 facility with no observations, reducing regulatory overhang.
Technical levels and outlook for 23 Feb 2026
- Nifty 50: The index has pulled back above 25,550 but remains below its 50‑day moving average. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the previous session suggests caution. Immediate support lies at 25,330–25,000; a break could drag the index toward 25,200–25,100. On the higher side, resistance is placed around 25,650, followed by 25,800. Momentum indicators are neutral; expect range‑bound trade unless the index decisively crosses 25,650.
- Nifty Bank: The index registered a strong recovery but formed a large bearish candle on daily charts, signifying selling pressure from highs. The 21‑day and 20‑day EMAs around 60,300-60,400 act as key supports. Below 60 300, the index may retest 60,000. On the upside, 61,100-61,200 is immediate resistance; a breakout could extend gains towards 61,500–61,750. Options data show call writing near 61,500, indicating supply above this level.
- Sensex: With the 50‑day moving average now above the 200‑day moving average, the medium‑term trend remains constructive. Near‑term resistance is at 83,200-83,500; support lies near 82,300-82,000.
Expected tone for the next trading day (Monday, 23 Feb 2026)
Indian stock exchanges do not operate on weekends. Since 21 February is a Saturday and 22 February is a Sunday, there will be no trading on those days. The next trading session will take place on Monday, 23 February 2026. Going into the new week, sentiment is expected to remain cautious to range‑bound: global cues-particularly developments in the Middle East, U.S. inflation data and crude‑oil prices-will dictate risk appetite. Traders should continue to monitor PSU bank stocks and capital‑goods names, which are showing relative strength, while IT and other rate‑sensitive sectors may remain under pressure. On Monday a consolidation within 25,330-25,650 on Nifty and 60,000–61,200 on Bank Nifty is expected unless there is a decisive break beyond these levels.
Disclaimer
The stocks mentioned in this article are not recommendations. Please conduct your own research and due diligence before investing. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the Risk Disclosure documents carefully before investing in Equity Shares, Derivatives, Mutual fund, and/or other instruments traded on the Stock Exchanges. As investments are subject to market risks and price fluctuation risk, there is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objectives shall be achieved. Lemonn (Formerly known as NU Investors Technologies Pvt. Ltd) do not guarantee any assured returns on any investments. Past performance of securities/instruments is not indicative of their future performance.
