Indian Market Outlook – 5 January 2026

nifty sensex going down

Market performance and key indices

Indian equities started the first full trading week of 2026 on a cautious note. After scaling fresh record levels in early trade, benchmark indices slipped into the red amid profit‑taking in technology shares and caution over global trade tensions. The Nifty 50 hit a new intraday high above 26,370 before reversing gains to close at 26,250.3, down 0.3 %. The BSE Sensex fell 0.38 % to 85,439.62. Market breadth was positive but tepid; around 254 stocks advanced against 241 declines in the broad BSE 500 universe. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were small net buyers, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also continued to support the market.

Major indices

IndexCloseChange (%)
Nifty 5026 250.30–0.30 %
BSE Sensex85 439.62–0.38 %

Note: The mid‑cap and small‑cap indices managed modest gains even as large‑caps consolidated.

Sectoral performance

Out of 38 sectoral indices tracked on the National Stock Exchange, 28 ended higher and 10 declined. Real‑estate shares extended their outperformance, while information‑technology stocks were sold on profit‑taking and worries about U.S. tariffs:

SectorPerformance
Realty (NIFTY REALTY)+1.72 % – best‑performing sector amid optimism about demand and supportive policies
Banking/PSU Banksmodest gains as banking stocks outperformed the broader market
Metals, Auto, Energy, Oil & Gassmall gains (~0.3–1 %)
Information Technology (NIFTY IT)–1.50 % – profit‑taking ahead of upcoming earnings; CLSA downgraded several large IT stocks
Consumer/Goodslittle changed to slightly negative

Mid‑cap and small‑cap stocks saw a rotation in favour of select names from the realty and energy themes; large‑caps were mostly flat. The advance–decline ratio on the BSE 500 stood at about 1.05 : 1, indicating slightly more advancing shares than decliners.

Top movers

Top gainers (BSE 500)

StockMove (%)Comment
Tourism Finance Corporation+19.99 %sharp rally on strong business update and renewed investor interest in niche financials
Netweb Technologies+9.42 %continued momentum after recent new‑age tech orders
Ola Electric+6.53 %upbeat sentiment following delivery update and sectoral tailwinds
SJVN+5.24 %gains after project commissioning and positive outlook on renewable segment
Bharat Electronics (BEL)+3.25 %large‑cap outperformer on strong orders and defence spending optimism

Top losers (BSE 500)

StockMove (%)Comment
Sai Silks–11.33 %weak earnings guidance led to heavy selling in this small‑cap retailer
Premier Energies–5.62 %profit‑taking after a sharp prior rally in the renewable‑energy name
Sapphire Foods–5.11 %declines on margin concerns in the quick‑service restaurant space
Waaree Energies–4.70 %selling pressure in solar equipment stocks
Infosys–2.37 %major IT stock dragged the index amid downgrades and cautious commentary ahead of results

What moved the market

IT drag and trade worries: The day’s pull‑back was driven largely by weakness in technology heavyweights. CLSA cut its ratings on HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra, triggering broad‑based profit‑taking in IT stocks. Additionally, U.S. President Trump signalled that tariffs on India could be raised if New Delhi does not curb its purchases of Russian oil. Investors feared potential headwinds for export‑oriented sectors, causing risk‑off sentiment despite positive corporate updates.

Positive business updates: Several companies released strong quarterly business updates, particularly in the banking and real‑estate sectors. A robust performance from Sobha (highest‑ever sales), CSB Bank, Bandhan Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bank of Baroda underscored expectations that upcoming earnings season may be healthy. This helped cushion declines and supported select mid‑cap names. Real‑estate stocks rallied on hopes of sustained demand and favourable policies.

Rotation into mid/small caps: While the headline indices fell, the BSE Mid‑Cap and Small‑Cap indices eked out gains. Investors rotated into broader‑market names, seeking growth opportunities outside the large‑cap universe. Tourism Finance Corporation and other microcaps saw outsized moves.

Global cues

  • Wall Street: U.S. markets closed higher on Friday; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66 % to 48,382.39, while the S&P 500 added 0.19 %. The Nasdaq Composite ended marginally lower. Gains were led by chipmakers and industrial stocks.
  • Asia: Asian markets were broadly strong; Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose around 2.3 % and South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.2 %, both hitting fresh highs. China’s SSE Composite was steady and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded mildly lower.
  • Commodities & Currency: Oil prices remained range‑bound despite geopolitical tensions; Brent crude hovered around USD 61 per barrel. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, which could affect foreign portfolio flows.
  • Geopolitics: U.S. strikes on Venezuela and rhetoric about higher tariffs on India introduced uncertainty, prompting traders to adopt a risk‑averse stance.

Corporate updates

Several companies released quarterly business updates or announced major developments:

  • Bank of Baroda: global business up 12.2 % year‑on‑year (YoY) to ₹28.9 lakh crore; domestic advances rose 13.5 %; retail advances grew 17.3 %.
  • Sobha Ltd: achieved its highest ever quarterly real‑estate sales of ₹2,115 crore in Q3 FY26, up 52 % YoY; the company entered the Mumbai market with its “Sobha Inizio” project.
  • V2 Retail: standalone revenue surged 57 % YoY to ₹927 crore, reflecting steady demand and store expansion.
  • KPI Green Energy: its subsidiary received a letter of intent for a 445 MW/890 MWh battery‑storage project from Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Limited.
  • NHPC: board will consider raising up to ₹2,000 crore via unsecured bonds.
  • Larsen & Toubro (L&T): the Minerals & Metals division won major EPC orders from Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and other clients to expand the IISCO steel plant in Burnpur.
  • Amber Enterprises: received clearance for a ₹4,700 crore investment in PCB manufacturing under the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme.
  • Baazar Style Retail: revenue grew 13 % YoY to ₹467 crore; however, pre‑poned festive sales led to a 14 % drop in same‑store sales.
  • Bajaj Housing Finance: Q3 gross disbursements jumped 31.5 % YoY to ₹16,535 crore; AUM grew 23 % to ₹1.33 lakh crore.
  • Bansal Wire: Q3 sales volume rose 31.7 % YoY to 121,702 MT; nine‑month volume up 37.9 % YoY.
  • Corona Remedies: revenue up 15 % YoY to ₹361 crore; net profit up 21.6 %.
  • Bajaj Finance: assets under management rose 22 % YoY to ₹4.86 lakh crore; 4.76 million customers added during the quarter.
  • Ujjivan Small Finance Bank: loan book grew 21.6 % YoY to ₹37,055 crore; deposits up 22.2 % to ₹42,219 crore; CASA ratio improved to 27.3 %.
  • Bandhan Bank: advances up 10 % YoY to ₹1.45 lakh crore; deposits up 11.1 %; collection efficiency improved to 98.1 %.
  • Yes Bank: advances up 5.2 % YoY to ₹2.58 lakh crore; deposits up 5.5 % to ₹2.92 lakh crore.
  • RBL Bank: gross advances up 13 % YoY to ₹1.05 lakh crore; deposits up 12 %.
  • Bank of India: domestic deposits up 12.8 % YoY; advances up 15.1 %.
  • CSB Bank: gross advances surged 29 % YoY; deposits up 21 %.
  • IDBI Bank: total business increased 12 % YoY to ₹5.5 lakh crore; deposits up 9 %.

Stocks to watch

  • CESC: technical charts indicate a breakout above a downward‑sloping trendline with rising volumes; momentum indicators (RSI, ADX) show strengthening bullish momentum. Accumulation is suggested in the ₹176–174 range with a stop‑loss at ₹165 and a near‑term target around ₹189.
  • Indian Bank: broke out from a 14‑session consolidation range (₹764–796) with strong volume expansion. RSI and MACD momentum indicators remain supportive. Buying in the ₹862–856 zone with a stop‑loss at ₹830 could target ₹920 in the short term.
  • IT majors (TCS, HCL Tech): these stocks are in focus ahead of quarterly results due on 12 January. Recent downgrades have led to near‑term weakness; earnings could determine the next trend.
  • HDFC Bank: business update showed loan growth outpacing deposits, triggering a 2.4 % decline; watch the stock for any follow‑through selling.
  • Sobha, CSB Bank and Bandhan Bank: after strong quarterly updates, any sustained follow‑through could attract momentum traders.

Outlook for the next trading day (6 January 2026)

  • Technical levels: Despite Monday’s pull‑back, the broader uptrend remains intact with the Nifty 50 and Sensex trading well above their 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages. The Nifty faces immediate resistance around 26 500 and then 26 700; supports lie in the 26 150–26 100 zone. For the Bank Nifty, upside targets are around 60 600 and 61 200, while support exists near 59 700–59 600.
  • Market tone: Expect range‑bound trade with a mildly positive bias, as Asian markets remain firm and institutional flows are supportive. However, IT stocks could continue to weigh on the index ahead of earnings, and geopolitical worries may keep traders cautious. Stock‑specific action is likely to dominate, particularly in mid‑caps and sectors linked to domestic demand (realty, banking, select industrials). A sustained move above 26 350 on the Nifty may invite fresh buying, while a break below 26 150 could lead to deeper consolidation.
  • Key catalysts: Investors will watch for global developments around U.S.–Venezuela tensions, any clarity on potential tariffs on India, and economic data such as services PMI. Domestically, focus will shift to upcoming quarterly results from TCS and HCL Tech (12 January) and ICICI Prudential Life (13 January), which could set the tone for IT and financials.

In summary, the Indian market entered a consolidation phase after touching record highs, with IT stocks dragging and realty stocks providing support. Broader market breadth remains healthy, and strong corporate updates point to a solid earnings season ahead. Traders should remain selective, closely watch key support/resistance levels, and prepare for volatility driven by global cues and earnings announcements.