Indian Market Outlook (24 December 2025)

nifty sensex going down

Top Indices

The Indian benchmarks closed lower on Christmas Eve, dragged by losses in oil & gas, pharma and IT stocks, while metal-related shares offered some support. Trading volume was thin ahead of the holiday and foreign selling continued. Key index levels are summarised below:

IndexCloseDay’s changeObservations
Sensex (BSE 30)85 408.70–0.14 %Dropped after failing to hold the 26 180 resistance zone; selling in heavyweights like Reliance, Sun Pharma and Tata Motors offset gains from Trent and UltraTech Cement.
Nifty 5026 142.10–0.13 %The index oscillated between 26 123 and 26 236 before closing near the day’s low. It remains range‑bound with repeated rejection near 26 200 and support around 26 100.
Nifty Bank~59 183 (approx.)~–0.2 %Financials traded mixed; private lenders were slightly firm but PSU banks eased marginally.
Nifty Midcap 10060 451.35–0.60 %Mid‑caps underperformed due to profit‑taking in select NBFCs and pharmaceuticals.
Nifty Smallcap 10017 708.60+0.28 %Small‑caps gained as investors rotated into niche sectors, especially chemicals and metals.
BSE Mid Cap+0.14 %** **Broad gauge; minor gains thanks to stock‑specific buying.
BSE Small Cap+0.07 %** **Slight uptick as risk appetite returned to some beaten‑down counters.

Sectoral Performance

The overall market breadth was soft; 27 sectors advanced while 11 declined. Metals and media were the only bright spots, while oil & gas, IT and pharma led declines. The key performers:

Sector (Nifty/Theme)ChangeNotes
Metal+0.85 %Benefited from a surge in global metal prices and strength in companies like Hindustan Copper, GMDC, Vedanta and Nalco.
Media+0.44 %Outperformed due to bargain hunting and positive sentiment in broadcasting stocks.
Realty+0.17 %Mild gains as interest‑rate stability supported property plays.
Oil & Gas–0.76 %Crude weakness and profit‑taking hurt refiners and exploration companies.
IT–0.51 %Dropped after the US Department of Homeland Security announced H‑1B visa selection would favour higher‑skilled workers; this hurt exporters like Wipro and Tech Mahindra.
Pharma–0.51 %Weakness from Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy’s offset resilience in select generics.
Consumer Durables–0.48 %Profit‑taking in discretionary names like Titan and Asian Paints caused a pull‑back.
PSU Bank–0.05 %Marginal decline as investors locked in gains following recent rallies.

Market breadth & statistics – On the NSE, 1 361 stocks advanced and 1 770 declined (advance–decline ratio of ~0.77); 90 stocks hit 52‑week highs and 60 made new lows; 79 hit upper circuits, while 46 hit lower circuits. The market capitalisation of NSE‑listed companies stood at ₹472.64 lakh crore and the India VIX volatility index fell almost 2 % to 9.19.

Top Gainers and Losers

Nifty 50 Gainers and Losers

Top Gainers% ChangeReason
Trent≈+2.4 %Retail major extended its uptrend after positive festive‑season sales.
Shriram Finance≈+1.7 %Rise driven by expectations of strong quarterly results and stable asset quality.
Apollo Hospitals≈+1.4 %Healthcare stocks gained amid hopes of improving margins.
Bajaj Auto≈+0.8 %Auto sector optimism on robust festive demand and declining input costs.
UltraTech Cement≈+0.8 %Cement prices held firm; investors expected strong construction demand.
Top Losers% ChangeReason
InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo)≈–1.6 %Profit‑taking after run‑up; aviation sentiment cautious on fuel prices.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories≈–1.3 %Weak Q3 margin outlook and some profit‑booking.
Adani Enterprises≈–1.2 %Investor caution amid regulatory scrutiny.
Wipro≈–1.2 %Fall due to H‑1B visa changes affecting outsourcing prospects.
HDFC Life Insurance≈–1.1 %Declined after rising bond yields dented insurance valuations.

Broader Market Gainers and Losers

CategoryGainers (approx. % gain)Losers (approx. % loss)Notes
BSE 500JBM Auto (+9 %), Castrol India (+7.6 %), Manappuram Finance (+6.3 %)Kajaria Ceramics (–3.5 %), OneSource Specialty Chemicals (–2.6 %), Kirloskar Oil (–2.3 %)Momentum buying in auto ancillaries and lubricants; ceramics fell on fraud concerns.
Large CapsIndus Towers (+3.1 %)Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (–1.36 %)Tower operator gained on tenancy growth; pharma stock slipped on margin concerns.
Mid‑CapsCastrol India (+7.58 %), Bandhan Bank (-1.61)Bandhan Bank (–1.61 %)Lubricant maker rallied after BP planned to sell a majority stake to Stonepeak; bank underperformed on asset‑quality worries.
Small CapsVIP Industries (+13.5 %)Nectar Lifesciences (–4.98 %)Luggage maker surged on strong demand; biotech firm fell on profit‑taking.

What Moved the Market

  1. Foreign fund outflows and liquidity drain – Foreign institutional investors sold around ₹1 795 crore of equities on Tuesday while domestic institutions absorbed the supply by buying over ₹3 812 crore. Multiple recent IPOs have also absorbed liquidity, causing thin volumes and profit‑taking.
  2. Rupee weakness and bond‑market dynamics – The rupee briefly weakened before the RBI’s liquidity measures (open‑market operations and USD/INR swap) stabilised it; bond yields remained range‑bound, but currency weakness weighed on foreign flows.
  3. US H‑1B visa policy – The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced it will prioritize higher‑skilled, higher‑paid applicants for H‑1B visas. This triggered selling in Indian IT majors like Wipro and Tech Mahindra because the policy could limit worker deployment.
  4. Commodity rally – Metals and mining shares rose on a global surge in gold, silver and industrial metals prices; expectations of Chinese stimulus and stable commodity markets buoyed Hindustan Copper, GMDC, Vedanta and Nalco.
  5. Thin holiday trading – Participation was low ahead of the Christmas holiday (markets were closed on 25 December), leading to higher intraday volatility and stock‑specific moves.

Global Cues

  • Asian markets – Japanese Nikkei slipped 0.1 %, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.19 %, China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.53 % and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.21 %. Investors reacted to the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes and looked ahead to year‑end holidays.
  • US markets – Overnight, the Dow Jones gained 0.16 %, S&P 500 rose 0.46 % and Nasdaq climbed 0.57 %, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high on stronger‑than‑expected economic data. U.S. futures were slightly lower in pre‑market trading, indicating a cautious tone ahead of the shortened trading session.
  • Commodities – Gold, silver and platinum jumped to record highs as investors hedged against economic uncertainty; this supported Indian metal stocks. Brent crude remained soft near multi‑year lows, keeping inflation expectations benign.

Stocks to Watch

  • JBM Auto – Rally after the company secured major EV bus orders. Momentum could continue if new orders flow in.
  • Castrol India – Stock surged as parent BP announced plans to sell a controlling stake to Stonepeak; watch for developments around the transaction and any open‑offer implications.
  • Vikran Engineering – Shares jumped over 11 % after winning a solar projects order, highlighting opportunities in renewable energy.
  • Ajanta Pharma – Climbed 2.5 % after entering a pact with Biocon to market weight‑loss drug semaglutide in India.
  • Kajaria Ceramics – Slipped over 4 % after a fraud was discovered in a subsidiary, leading to investor caution.
  • Coal India – In focus after the board approved the listing of subsidiaries SECL and MCL; potential unlocking of value could draw interest.
  • Hindustan Copper, GMDC, Nalco – Beneficiaries of the metal rally; watch for continued strength if global prices remain elevated.

Corporate Updates

  • Indus Towers – Gained over 3 % on expectations of higher tenancy additions from 5G rollout.
  • Bandhan Bank – Declined on concerns about asset quality despite stable deposit growth.
  • Dr Reddy’s Laboratories – Fell due to margin concerns and some regulatory overhang.
  • VIP Industries – Small‑cap star; surging demand for travel accessories and improved margins lifted the stock.
  • Castrol India – Momentum continues as BP’s planned stake sale to Stonepeak created buzz about a potential open offer.
  • Vikran Engineering & Ajanta Pharma – Notable moves due to order wins and drug licensing pacts.

Technical Levels and Outlook for Tomorrow

  • Nifty 50 – The index has immediate support near 26 100, with strong support around 26 000. Resistance lies at 26 250. Failure to break above 26 200 has repeatedly triggered profit‑taking; a sustained close above 26 250 could open the path to 26 400, while a break below 26 100 may take the index towards the 25 900–26 000 zone.
  • Bank Nifty – Faces resistance near 59 600 and stronger resistance at 60 000. Supports are at 59 000 and 58 800. The index is consolidating around the recent breakout area and may form a base between 58 500 and 60 100.

Expected market tone for the next trading day (Friday, 26 December) – With global markets in holiday mode and thin participation expected, consolidation is likely. The Nifty might remain range‑bound between 26 000 and 26 250, and Bank Nifty between 58 800 and 59 600. Traders should adopt a cautious, stock‑specific approach, focusing on sectors showing relative strength (metals, select auto and media stocks). Market sentiment will depend on global cues (US consumer‑confidence data, Chinese policy announcements) and foreign flows. Any decisive move above or below the above‑mentioned technical levels could set the tone for the final week of 2025.