Indian Market Outlook – 19 September 2025

nifty sensex going down

Overall performance of key indices

IndexCloseChange% changeWeekly trend
BSE Sensex82,626.23−387.73 pts−0.47 %still gained ~0.9 % for the week
Nifty 5025,327.05−96.55 pts−0.38 %up ~0.9 % over the week
Nifty Bank55,458.85−268.7 pts−0.48 %snapped a 12‑session winning run
BSE Midcap39,180 (approx.)nearly flat≈0 %ended the week higher
BSE Smallcap54,551.57+18.82 pts+0.03 %continued to outperform (+2.9 % for the week)
India VIX~10.8moderateslight uptickremains subdued

*Approximately 1 992 NSE shares advanced versus 1 961 declines, showing even breadth.

Sectoral performance

Sector indexTrend on 19 SeptCommentary
Power/Utilities▲ 2.0–2.6 %Outperformed as PSU power stocks and Adani Power rallied after the regulator dismissed key charges against the group. NTPC and other utilities gained.
Rubber▲ ~1.5 %Rubber-related counters continued their up‑trend, buoyed by healthy export demand.
Infrastructure▲ ~1.4 %Infra names such as Larsen & Toubro stayed firm amid strong order flows.
Telecom▲ ~1.2 %Vodafone Idea jumped after the Supreme Court deferred hearing on its AGR dues case; Bharti Airtel also advanced.
Metal & Mining▲ 0.4 %Metals edged higher; optimism over global demand offset profit‑taking.
Oil & Gas▲ 0.7 %Supported by firm crude prices and buying in ONGC/Oil India.
Healthcare▲ 0.2 %Defensive sector saw modest gains.
Capital Goods▲ 0.1 %Mixed; Larsen held steady while others slipped.
Consumer Durables▼ 0.5 %Profit‑booking in Titan and other durables pulled the index lower.
Media▼ 0.5 %Media counters slipped after strong previous run.
Auto▼ 0.4 %Two‑wheeler makers gave up some gains; M&M and Tata Motors were weak.
FMCG▼ 0.4 %Selling in Nestlé and ITC weighed on the defensive pack.
Information Technology▼ 0.5 %Tech stocks were under pressure after a three‑day rally; HCL Tech, TCS and Infosys saw profit‑booking.
PSU Banks▲ ~1 %Gains in SBI and other state lenders offset declines in private banks.

Top gainers and losers (Nifty 50)

Top gainersClosing price (₹)% chgDrivers
Adani Enterprises~2 497+3.9 %Rally continued after the market regulator dismissed major allegations; also optimism on logistics and data‑centre ventures.
Adani Ports & SEZ~1 432+1.4 %Benefited from clean‑chit to the group and positive outlook on cargo volumes.
State Bank of India (SBI)~863+1.0 %Strong loan growth guidance and FII buying in PSU banks.
SBI Life Insurance~1 838+0.9 %Buoyed by healthy new‑business premium growth.
Asian Paints/NTPC/Bharti Airtel~2 503 / ~349 / ~935+0.9 –1.5 %Paints and telecom stocks saw defensive buying; NTPC gained with power peers.
Top losersClosing price (₹)% chgReasons
HCL Technologies~1 426−2 %Profit‑taking after sharp rally; cautious commentary on FY26 tech spending.
ICICI Bank~1 404−1.3 %Weakness in large private banks on expectations of slower NIM expansion; block deals weighed.
Nestlé India~2 452−1.1 %Investors booked gains ahead of quarterly results and margin concerns.
Titan Company~3 718−1.1 %Jewellery demand concerns and high valuations prompted selling.
Trent/M&M/HDFC Lifevarious−1.0–1.5 %Retail, auto and insurance names slipped on profit‑taking.

Key statistics and flows

  • Market breadth: On the NSE roughly 1 992 shares advanced, 1 961 declined and 163 were unchanged, indicating a neutral advance‑decline ratio. Mid‑ and small‑caps remained resilient.
  • Institutional flows: Provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of about ₹367 crore on 18 September. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought around ₹3 327 crore, reflecting continued domestic support even as global uncertainties persist.
  • Rupee and commodities: The rupee closed marginally firmer near ₹88.10/US$ after the previous session’s slide. Brent crude hovered around US$67.5/bbl while WTI traded near US$63.6/bbl, inching higher on tight supply. Gold prices stayed elevated above ₹1.09 lakh per 10 gms, signalling safe‑haven demand.

What moved the market

  • Profit‑booking in IT and financials: After a multi‑session rally, investors locked in gains in heavyweights such as HCL Tech, ICICI Bank and other private lenders. Both sectors had run up sharply following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut, prompting some cooling off.
  • Fed rate cut and U.S. trade optimism: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time in nine months, spurring risk‑on sentiment globally. Hopes of progress in India–U.S. trade talks added to the week’s buoyancy and kept the undertone positive despite Friday’s pullback.
  • Adani group rebound: Stocks across the Adani group surged 0.3–12 % after the Securities and Exchange Board of India dismissed major allegations from the Hindenburg report. Adani Power jumped more than 12 % intraday; Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports were among the day’s top gainers on the Nifty.
  • Stock‑specific moves: Vodafone Idea rallied over 7 % after the Supreme Court deferred a hearing on its adjusted‑gross‑revenue dues case. Redington gained as the iPhone 17 went on sale in India. Kaynes Technology slid ~6 % following news of CEO Rajesh Sharma’s resignation.
  • Mixed global cues: U.S. indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones) closed at record highs the previous night, but Asian markets traded flat to higher. The U.S. dollar index remained firm near 97.4 and crude prices ticked up, tempering risk appetite. Investors awaited PMI and employment data from major economies.

Corporate updates and news

  • Metropolis Healthcare shares hit a fresh two‑month high, rising ~3 %, after robust sample‑volume growth and stable margins.
  • Rajesh Power Services won contracts worth ~₹277 crore, including a large underground cable conversion project for Madhya Gujarat Vij Company.
  • JSW Energy announced a ₹1 728 crore acquisition of Tidong Power Generation through its subsidiary JSW Neo Energy, expanding its hydropower footprint.
  • Oil India and Hindustan Copper signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly explore and develop critical mineral deposits.
  • Tata Consultancy Services said it would integrate NVIDIA’s accelerated computing to help global retailers adopt next‑generation AI, signalling continued large‑cap IT investment in generative AI.
  • Regulatory actions: Discussions between SEBI and RBI on allowing derivatives trading on corporate bond indices hinted at deeper bond‑market reforms.

Stocks to watch for the next session (22 September 2025)

StockRationale
Adani Power/Adani EnterprisesContinued momentum after regulatory relief could carry forward into next week; watch for follow‑through buying and news around refinancing plans.
Vodafone IdeaSupreme Court hearing on adjusted‑revenue case scheduled for 26 September; the stock rallied on deferment and could remain volatile.
JSW EnergyAcquisition of Tidong hydropower project may keep the stock in focus; monitor regulatory approvals and financing details.
Metropolis HealthcareFresh highs driven by strong volumes could attract momentum investors; watch for follow‑through buying above ₹2 100.
Kaynes TechnologyCEO resignation triggered selling; further management commentary and succession plans will be key.
UCO Bank and other PSU lendersPSU banks outperformed amid rate‑cut tailwinds; look for continuation if FII flows persist.
IT majors (Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech)After profit‑taking, any dip towards support levels may offer entry opportunities, especially with favourable commentary on U.S. rate cuts and digital demand.

Technical outlook and levels for next trading day (Monday, 22 Sept 2025)

  • Nifty 50: The index formed a small bearish candle near its recent highs but still maintains a higher‑high–higher‑low structure on the daily chart. Immediate support is seen at 25,300–25,250. A break below this range could extend the decline towards 25,150. On the upside, 25,500 remains an important hurdle; a decisive move above this level may open the door to 25,600–25,625. Momentum indicators remain in neutral territory after the pullback.
  • Bank Nifty: The banking index slipped after a 12‑session rally but still maintains an upward bias. Initial support lies around 54,800 (confluence of 20‑ and 100‑day exponential moving averages), with stronger support at 54,000. Resistance is seen at 56,000–56,150; a breakout could push the index toward 56,300–56,500. Traders should watch price action in key constituents such as ICICI Bank, SBI, and Axis Bank.
  • Market tone: The broader trend remains bullish thanks to the Fed’s dovish stance, robust domestic macro‑fundamentals and resilient mid‑/small‑cap space. However, Friday’s sell‑off shows investors are turning selective. Expect a range‑bound to mildly positive tone in the next session with stock‑specific moves dominating. Traders should keep an eye on U.S. and Asian market cues, crude‑oil trends, the rupee’s trajectory and upcoming domestic macro data (PMI readings and RBI commentary). Profit‑booking on rallies and buying on dips are likely to continue, with volatility creeping in ahead of the September F&O expiry.

Disclaimer

The stocks mentioned in this article are not recommendations. Please conduct your own research and due diligence before investing. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the Risk Disclosure documents carefully before investing in Equity Shares, Derivatives, Mutual fund, and/or other instruments traded on the Stock Exchanges. As investments are subject to market risks and price fluctuation risk, there is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objectives shall be achieved. Lemonn (Formerly known as NU Investors Technologies Pvt. Ltd) do not guarantee any assured returns on any investments. Past performance of securities/instruments is not indicative of their future performance.