Indian Market Outlook – 18 February 2026
Market Summary
The domestic equity market resumed its up‑trend on Tuesday, 18 February 2026. Buying interest in metal, public‑sector banking and FMCG stocks outweighed weakness in IT counters, helping the indices close in the green. Sensex and Nifty 50 closed at fresh highs while the broader indices extended their record runs. The India VIX (volatility index) cooled markedly, indicating reduced nervousness.
| Index | Close | Change | % Change | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex | 83,734.25 | +283.29 | +0.34% | 30‑share benchmark rallied on gains in Tata Steel, ITC, Axis Bank, Reliance and M&M; closed near the day’s high. |
| NSE Nifty 50 | 25,819.35 | +93.95 | +0.37% | Follows Sensex’s trajectory; overcame morning dip to finish above 25,800 for the first time. |
| Nifty Bank | 61,550.80 | +376.80 | +0.62% | Banks outperformed; strong buying in PSU lenders led the index towards its 52‑week high. |
| Nifty PSU Bank | 9,647 | +146 | +1.54% | Recorded a new all‑time high; all 12 constituents gained, led by Punjab National Bank. |
| India VIX | ~12 | -3.5% | – | Volatility gauge declined further, signalling calm sentiment. |
Key statistics
- Nifty Bank: opened at 61,255.35, hit a high of 61,596.85 and a low of 61,100.90; the index is less than 0.5% from its 52‑week high of 61,764.85, with support near 61,200 and 61,000.
- Rupee: the Indian rupee ended flat around ₹90.68 per U.S. dollar, showing little movement despite firm equities.
- Put–call ratio (PCR): Option data showed strong put writing near the 25,700 and 25,600 strikes, hinting at a cushion around those levels; call writers were active at 26,000 and 26,200 strikes.
Sectoral Performance
Gains were concentrated in metal, public‑sector banking and FMCG names, while information technology lagged amid profit‑taking. The following table summarises sector index moves:
| Sector index | % change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty Metal | +1.33% | Driven by Tata Steel (+2.8%), Hindustan Copper (+3.6%), Jindal Stainless and Jindal Steel; benefitted from hopes of higher tariffs on Chinese metals. |
| Nifty PSU Bank | +1.31% | All constituents advanced; Punjab National Bank (+2.7%), Bank of Maharashtra (+2.2%) and State Bank of India saw buying after reporting improved asset‑quality metrics. |
| Nifty FMCG | +1.2% | Gains in ITC (+2.3%), Godfrey Phillips (+20%) and Marico (+3%) offset weakness elsewhere; defensive buying supported the sector. |
| Nifty Oil & Gas | ~+0.5% | Oil marketing companies rallied on softer crude prices; Reliance Industries gained ~2.2%. |
| Nifty Auto | ~+0.5% | Mahindra & Mahindra gained ~2% on strong tractor sales; auto ancillary names such as Apar Industries and HEG saw interest. |
| Nifty IT | -1.2% | Sell‑off in tech majors (Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCLTech, TCS) following U.S. tech weakness and cautious management commentary; index was the only notable laggard. |
Top Gainers and Losers
Sensex/Nifty heavyweights
| Top gainers (index heavyweights) | Approx. % change | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel | +2.8% | Rally in global steel prices; optimism around tariffs on cheap imports. |
| ITC | +2.3% | Continued strength in FMCG and cigarettes; defensive buying. |
| Axis Bank | +2.3% | Banking stocks benefited from strong credit growth and improving margins. |
| Reliance Industries | +2.2% | Gains in oil & gas business and optimism around telecom tariff hikes. |
| Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) | +2.0% | Strong tractor and SUV sales; hope of improved rural demand. |
| Top losers (index heavyweights) | Approx. % change | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Tech Mahindra | -1.6% | IT sector weakness and concerns over U.S. tech spending. |
| Infosys | -1.4% | Profit‑taking after recent rally; cautious outlook on large deals. |
| Eternal | -1.4% | Short build‑up seen in F&O; sector rotation out of IT. |
| Adani Ports | -1.3% | Profit‑booking after previous session’s gains; stable cargo volumes. |
| HCLTech | -1.0% | Negative sentiment following sector‑wide selling; valuations seen as stretched. |
| TCS | -1.0% | Marginal decline amid broad IT sell‑off. |
Broader‑market outperformers
Several mid‑cap and small‑cap stocks delivered outsized gains:
| Stock | % change | Reasons |
|---|---|---|
| Godfrey Phillips | +20% | Sharp rally after price hikes; improved tobacco margins. |
| Transformers & Rectifiers | +9.2% | Continued demand for transformers; record order book. |
| Netweb Technologies | +9.0% | Strong order pipeline for AI servers; beneficiary of data‑centre investment. |
| Schneider Electric Infra. | ~+8.1% | Surge on robust quarterly results and capital goods up‑cycle. |
| Techno Electric & Engineering | >+5% | Gains on renewable energy orders. |
| Apar Industries, GMDC, HEG, Cohance Lifesciences, Choice International, Reliance Infrastructure | +5–7% | Various stock‑specific factors including order wins, product launches and high volumes. |
| City Union Bank | +4% | Strong earnings; improved asset quality. |
| Punjab National Bank | +2.7% | Record high; strong growth guidance. |
| Bank of Maharashtra | +2.2% | Government support and deposit traction. |
What Moved the Market
- Metals & PSU Banks led the rally: Robust earnings and expectations of import restrictions on Chinese metals drove metal stocks. Public‑sector banks rallied to record levels after reporting improving asset quality and strong net interest margins; Punjab National Bank led the advance.
- Defensive buying in FMCG: Investors rotated into FMCG stocks such as ITC and Godfrey Phillips amid volatility, buoyed by price increases and stable demand.
- Tech stocks sold off: IT majors fell due to concerns about U.S. tech spending, profit‑taking after recent gains and cautious management commentary. The sell‑off in U.S. technology stocks overnight also weighed on sentiment.
- Stable macro backdrop: Softer crude oil prices and a firm rupee supported equities. Domestic macro data remained constructive, with expectations of continued government spending ahead of the budget.
- Derivatives positioning: Put writers at 25,700 and 25,600 strikes provided a floor for the Nifty, while call writing at 26,000 and 26,200 limited upside. The India VIX fell, reflecting reduced hedging demand.
Global Cues
- U.S. futures: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up ~0.3% each, suggesting a positive start on Wall Street later in the day.
- Asia: MSCI Asia‑Pacific ex‑Japan index gained around 0.6%. Japan’s Topix added more than 1% while the Nikkei 225 rose ~0.8%. Chinese and Hong Kong markets remained closed for Lunar New Year.
- Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up ~0.2%. The STOXX 600, FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 indices all traded between +0.33% and +0.53% at the time of Indian close, reflecting moderate risk appetite.
- Commodities & forex: Brent crude oil drifted below USD 82/barrel, helping oil‑importing economies. Gold prices were steady. The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, keeping the rupee stable.
Stocks to Watch
- PSU banks: Punjab National Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Union Bank and State Bank of India remain in focus after their breakout to fresh highs; watch for follow‑through buying.
- Metal stocks: Tata Steel, Hindustan Copper, Jindal Stainless and Jindal Steel could see further momentum if news of tariffs on Chinese imports materialises.
- FMCG names: Godfrey Phillips, ITC and other mid‑cap FMCG firms may attract continued defensive flows.
- AI and data‑centre plays: Netweb Technologies and Schneider Electric Infrastructure gained on demand for AI servers and data‑centre equipment; the theme could remain in favour.
- Larsen & Toubro (L&T): The engineering major announced a partnership with Nvidia to build gigawatt‑scale AI factory infrastructure using Nvidia GPUs and networking; the collaboration will scale GPU clusters at L&T’s Chennai data centre and includes a new 40 MW facility in Mumbai. This positions L&T as a key beneficiary of India’s AI and data‑centre boom.
Corporate Updates
- L&T–Nvidia partnership: L&T’s technology services arm will leverage Nvidia’s GPUs, CPUs, networking and AI software to build AI factories in India. The partnership includes scaling existing GPU clusters at L&T’s Chennai data centre and constructing a new 40 MW facility in Mumbai. The collaboration aims to provide high‑performance computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence workloads in the country.
- Unicommerce eSolutions: The SaaS platform provider saw its stock surge 25% over two sessions after reporting 72.2% year‑over‑year revenue growth and a 51% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the December quarter. Growth was driven by strong enterprise client additions and expansion of its Uniware warehouse and Shipway logistics platforms.
- Earnings season: Mid‑cap companies such as Transformers & Rectifiers, Netweb Technologies and Cohance Lifesciences reported robust quarterly numbers, leading to sharp rallies. Investors should monitor earnings announcements for further triggers.
Technical Outlook and Market Tone for 19 February 2026
- Nifty 50: The index respected support near the 20‑day exponential moving average at 25,645–25,660 and decisively closed above the 25,800 resistance. Technical oscillators (MACD, RSI) remain in positive territory. Immediate resistance is located at 25,850–25,900; a breakout could push the index towards the 26,000 zone. Supports are seen at 25,650 and then 25,600–25,550. The bias remains mildly positive with a “buy‑on‑dip” approach.
- Nifty Bank: The banking index is within striking distance of its 52‑week high. Immediate resistance is near 61,650–61,800; a sustained move above could open the door towards 62,200. Supports are at 61,200 and 61,000. Momentum indicators are bullish but overbought; some consolidation cannot be ruled out.
- Market tone for tomorrow: The tone is expected to remain positive to range‑bound. Positive global cues, firm domestic macro data and continued strength in metals and PSU banks should underpin sentiment, though overbought conditions may lead to intraday profit‑taking. Traders should watch for follow‑through buying in leading sectors and monitor global markets for any sudden risk‑off triggers. Overall, dips towards support levels are likely to attract buyers, while rallies near resistance levels could see supply.
