Indian Market Outlook – 13 Oct 2025

nifty sensex going down

Top indices (13 Oct 2025)

Index/IndicatorCloseChange (pts)% changeNotes
BSE Sensex82 352.51–148.31–0.18 %snapped two‑day winning streak
Nifty 5025 238.15–47.20–0.19 %remained above 25 200 despite early sell‑off
Bank Nifty56 633.10+23.35+0.04 %outperformed broader market

Indices closed mixed, with heavyweight indices registering modest declines while banking names held steady.

Sectoral performance

Sector (broad indices)ToneComment
Metal / Oil & Gas / Telecom / IT / Capital Goods / Consumer Durables / Real Estate▼ negativesold off 0.5–1 %; US–China tariff escalation hurt export‑linked names and IT stocks; profit‑taking in heavyweights
Auto / Bank / PSU Bank / Realty / Pharma▲ positivegained 0.5–1 %; autos and select PSU banks saw buying interest; pharma attracted defensive flows
Mid‑cap & Small‑capweakness across broader market due to risk aversion

Key statistics and highlights

  • FII/DII flows: foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers during the week of 6–10 Oct, injecting roughly ₹1 751 crore into equities after months of net selling. Domestic institutions continued to buy and helped cushion the market.
  • Volatility and sentiment: the India VIX climbed above 11 %, reflecting increased caution. Investors moved money into safe‑havens; gold futures on MCX hit a record of ~₹1 23 680 per 10 g.
  • Market breadth: the decline was broad based; early trade saw the Sensex drop over 450 points before recovering part of the loss by the close.
  • Currency & Commodities: the rupee was steady around ₹88.69 per US dollar. Brent crude firmed near US$63.66/bbl, adding pressure to oil‑marketing companies.

Top gainers and losers

CategoryStocks (major)
Nifty 50 gainersInterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), Bajaj Auto, Adani Ports & SEZ, Shriram Finance, Axis Bank
Nifty 50 losersTata Motors, Infosys, Wipro, Bharat Electronics, Hindustan Unilever (HUL)
Other notable moversStallion India Fluorochemicals hit 10 % upper circuit on robust earnings; Indian Emulsifiers rallied 10 % after upbeat revenue guidance; Jupiter Life Line Hospitals gained ~2 % on plans to double hospital capacity; Solex Energy jumped on winning a ₹545 crore solar module order

What moved the market (analysis)

  • Global trade tension: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100 % tariff on Chinese imports, rekindling trade‑war fears and triggering a broad sell‑off across Asia. IT stocks fell as investors worried about export‑driven earnings; the Nifty IT index slipped ~0.65 %.
  • Profit‑taking: After a strong rally in the prior week (Sensex and Nifty up around 1.6 %), traders locked in profits, particularly in metal, telecom and consumer sectors.
  • Volatility spike: The jump in India VIX signalled heightened nervousness, prompting some rotation into defensives such as pharma and auto.
  • Resilient pockets: Autos and select financials drew buying interest amid expectations of continued demand and stable domestic policy; this helped Bank Nifty remain in the green.

Global cues

  • U.S. markets: on Friday the Nasdaq fell ~3.6 %, the S&P 500 dropped ~2.7 %, and the Dow lost ~1.9 % after Trump’s tariff announcement; U.S. futures recovered slightly as he later softened his tone.
  • Europe: the FTSE, CAC and DAX closed higher by ~0.1–0.5 % on hope of a US–China compromise and strength in miners after Dutch authorities seized control of chipmaker Nexperia, which lifted semiconductor stocks.
  • Asia: the Kospi, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng opened sharply lower on Monday; caution prevailed across the region.
  • Other developments: China’s September exports grew 8.3 %, beating expectations and providing a cushion to Chinese equities; European regulators’ actions against Chinese tech assets and Middle‑East geopolitical developments (Trump declaring “the war is over” in Israel‑Hamas conflict) influenced sentiment.

Stocks to watch (next trading day)

  • Latent View Analytics: technical charts indicate a breakout above ₹470; support at ₹425.
  • Krishana Phoschem: momentum strong after breaching resistance zone; target near ₹615 with stop‑loss around ₹550.
  • ITC: showing a bullish reversal; buying opportunity around ₹402 with target ₹415 and stop‑loss at ₹395.
  • Cipla & DLF: positive setups ahead of earnings; considered buy‑on‑dips candidates.
  • Syngene International & Vaibhav Global: gaining traction on technical strength.

Corporate updates

  • Results & earnings: Q2FY26 reporting season begins; major companies such as Reliance Industries, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HDFC Bank, IRFC, Nestlé India, HCL Technologies and IREDA are scheduled to announce quarterly numbers this week. Investors expect modest ~6 % earnings growth for Nifty companies.
  • IPOs: Tata Capital and LG Electronics India are set to debut on the exchanges; their performance will be watched closely as a barometer for the IPO market.
  • Policy measures: The Reserve Bank of India left the repo rate unchanged at 5.50 % and maintained a neutral stance, while implementing measures to ease credit flow; new GST reforms reduced taxes on essentials, benefiting consumer sectors; SEBI’s new block‑deal regulations aim to enhance transparency.

Technical outlook & tone for the next trading day (14 Oct 2025)

  • Nifty 50: the index holds above its short‑term support of 25 000; immediate resistance lies in the 25 400–25 450 zone. A convincing move above 25 450 could open the way to 25 600–25 670, whereas a fall below 25 000 may test 24 800.
  • Sensex: key support at 82 000–81 900 and resistance at 82 700–82 900. Sustaining above 82 700 could target 83 100–83 700; a breach below 81 900 may prompt further downside.
  • Bank Nifty: the index has immediate support near 56 000–55 900; resistance around 57 200, with potential upside to 58 000 if momentum continues.
  • Expected tone: given heightened global uncertainty and elevated volatility, the market is likely to open cautiously. However, underlying domestic sentiment remains constructive thanks to improving FII flows, supportive macro data and the onset of earnings season. Short‑term traders should remain nimble, use dips toward support zones as buying opportunities, and watch global headlines for cues.

Disclaimer

The stocks mentioned in this article are not recommendations. Please conduct your own research and due diligence before investing. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the Risk Disclosure documents carefully before investing in Equity Shares, Derivatives, Mutual fund, and/or other instruments traded on the Stock Exchanges. As investments are subject to market risks and price fluctuation risk, there is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objectives shall be achieved. Lemonn (Formerly known as NU Investors Technologies Pvt. Ltd) do not guarantee any assured returns on any investments. Past performance of securities/instruments is not indicative of their future performance.