Indian Market Outlook – 11 December 2025

nifty sensex up

Top indices (closing values and daily change)

IndexClosing LevelChange (pts)Change (%)
BSE Sensex84,818.13+426.86+0.51 %
NSE Nifty 5025,898.55+140.55+0.55 %
Nifty Midcap 10045,287 (approx.)+0.97 %+0.97 %
Nifty SmallCap 10015,053 (approx.)+0.81 %+0.81 %
BSE MidCap42,860 (approx.)+0.79 %+0.79 %
BSE SmallCap47,970 (approx.)+0.51 %+0.51 %
Nifty Bank (est.)~59,200≈+0.3 %≈+0.3 %

Note: Mid‑cap and small‑cap values are rounded estimates based on intraday levels because full closing data were not universally available.

Sectoral performance

Sector/IndexPerformanceNotes
Nifty Auto+1.11 %Autos outperformed on expectations of stronger domestic demand after the US Fed rate cut.
Nifty Metal+1.06 %Metals rallied as global commodity prices firmed up and market sentiment improved.
Nifty Pharma~+1 %Defensive buying and expectations of export demand supported the sector.
Nifty Consumer Durables~+1 %Positive cues from discretionary spending boosted durable stocks.
Nifty Oil & Gas–0.03 %Minor decline amid volatile crude prices and weak rupee.
Nifty Media–0.90 %The only sector to meaningfully lag as advertising outlook remained soft.
Banking & financials (Nifty Bank)~+0.3 %Rebounded from support near 59,000 but gains were capped by a record‑low rupee.

Top gainers

StockClose (₹)Change (₹)Change (%)Rationale
Tata Steel165.9+4.1+2.5 %Strength in metal prices and optimism around the government’s infrastructure push.
Eternal Ltd290.6+7.3+2.59 %Buying interest in mid‑cap financials.
Kotak Mahindra Bank2,185.1+55.6+2.61 %Recovery in banking stocks following the Fed’s rate cut and short covering.
UltraTech Cement10,790+260+2.47 %Hopes of higher capital expenditure and easing input costs.
Maruti Suzuki11,855+260+2.24 %Expectation of robust festive and rural demand supported by softer interest‑rate outlook.
Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, TMPVGains 1–2 %Pharma gained on defensive flows; IT stocks like Tech Mahindra reacted to a potential uptick in tech spending; TMPV (Toyota‑Maruti JV) rose on EV enthusiasm.

Top losers

StockClose (₹)Change (₹)Change (%)Notes
Asian Paints3,180–35.0–1.1 %Margins were pressured by rising input costs and cautious commentary.
Bajaj Finance7,025–70.2–0.99 %Profit‑taking after recent gains; focus on valuations.
Axis Bank1,140–10.9–0.95 %Weakening rupee and higher bond yields weighed on banking sentiment.
Power Grid265.3–2.6–0.96 %Defensive utilities underperformed as investors rotated into cyclicals.
ICICI Bank965.0–8.6–0.88 %Mild profit‑taking after a strong run; investors cautious amid rupee weakness.
Titan Company3,225–25.9–0.80 %Jewellery demand concerns and elevated valuations led to selling.

Small‑cap movers: The broader market saw heavy volume in smaller names. Among listed stocks, One Mobikwik, Sterling & Wilson Renewables, Natco Pharma, Dixon Technologies and Vodafone Idea gained between 5–7 %. On the downside, Timescan Logistics, Cyber Media, DSJ Keep Learning, Metro Brands and BASF India fell 2–5 %.

Analysis – What moved the market

  • US Federal Reserve cut rates – A widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve improved risk appetite globally. Lower US yields suggest foreign institutional investors (FIIs) may moderate their selling, which supported Indian equities.
  • Broad‑based buying – Autos and metals led gains on expectations of stronger domestic consumption and capex. IT stocks recovered as investors priced in higher tech spending. Banks and financials rebounded from key technical support zones.
  • Rupee weakness tempered gains – The Indian rupee closed at a record low around ₹90.37 per US dollar, down 0.4 % from the previous close. Currency concerns, along with ongoing India–US trade negotiations, limited the upside and kept traders cautious.
  • Global worries – Other Asian markets were weak after concerns about artificial‑intelligence valuations and rising Japanese bond yields triggered profit‑taking. US futures traded lower following a profit warning from a major cloud‑computing company, which added to caution.

Global cues

  • US markets – Futures on the S&P 500 fell roughly 0.9 % and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.2 %. The fall followed a sharp drop in an American tech giant that issued a soft revenue forecast. Overnight, the Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 bps, signalling potential for further cuts if inflation cools.
  • Asian markets – Japan’s Topix dropped about 0.9 %, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.7 %, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was almost flat. Concerns over AI‑driven valuations and rising yields in Japan weighed on sentiment.
  • European futures – Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed, indicating a cautious start.
  • Currency & commodities – The dollar index remained firm, and crude oil prices oscillated around US$78 per barrel. A weak rupee could raise the cost of imports and affect companies with foreign currency liabilities.

Stocks to watch

CategoryStock(s)Reasons
Near‑term trading ideasEicher Motors, Glenmark PharmaAnalysts cited these stocks as attractive for the near term due to positive technical setups and improving demand visibility.
Momentum playsTata Steel, UltraTech Cement, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Maruti SuzukiLeaders in metals, cement, banking and auto sectors that showed relative strength.
Corporate actionsVodafone IdeaCrossed ₹11 for the first time since Sept 2024; sentiment may stay buoyant amid fund‑raising expectations.
Project order boostOswal PumpsSecured a letter of award (LoA) for a ₹380 crore water‑pumping project; the stock jumped almost 7 %.
Penalty riskGAIL (India)A statutory authority imposed a ₹143 crore penalty, which could weigh on short‑term sentiment.
Upcoming IPOBoAt’s parent Imagine MarketingIts updated draft red‑herring prospectus highlighted auditor concerns over financial discrepancies, which may influence investor appetite for the forthcoming IPO.

Corporate updates

  • Rupee at record low – The Indian rupee ended at ₹90.37 per US dollar, its weakest closing level ever, pressured by high oil prices and persistent FII outflows.
  • GAIL penalty – The petroleum regulator imposed a ₹143 crore penalty on GAIL for alleged violations, although the company said it would evaluate legal options. The stock finished marginally higher as investors assessed the impact.
  • Vodafone Idea milestone – The telecom operator’s share price crossed ₹11, its highest level since September 2024, amid optimism about fund‑raising and network expansion.
  • Oswal Pumps order win – The company received an LoA worth ₹380 crore for a water‑supply project, sparking a rally in the stock.
  • BoAt IPO update – Imagine Marketing filed an updated prospectus for its planned initial public offering; auditors flagged certain financial discrepancies, adding an element of caution for potential investors.

Outlook for tomorrow (12 December 2025)

  • Tone – The underlying up‑trend remains intact, but the market may consolidate given the sharp rebound and lingering macro uncertainties. Weak global cues, a depreciating rupee and FII outflows could keep sentiment mixed. Investors will watch US inflation data and any commentary on further Fed rate cuts.
  • Technical levels
    • Nifty 50: immediate support lies near 25,735–25,750, which corresponds to the ascending trendline and 50‑day exponential moving average (EMA). A sustained move below this zone could trigger a deeper pullback toward 25,600. On the upside, 25,950–26,000 is immediate resistance (20‑EMA and psychological level). A breakout above 26,000 could open the path toward 26,200–26,300.
    • Bank Nifty (approx. 59,200): support around 58,900–59,000 remains crucial; below this, the index may drift toward 58,500. Resistance is seen at 59,600–59,800. A decisive close above 59,800 may pave the way for 60,200.
  • Market tone – Expect range‑bound trade with stock‑specific action. Autos, metals and select banks may continue to outperform if global risk sentiment improves. However, caution is warranted on sectors sensitive to currency fluctuations (oil & gas, import‑heavy industries). Traders should monitor the rupee’s trajectory and FII/DII flows closely.

Disclaimer

The stocks mentioned in this article are not recommendations. Please conduct your own research and due diligence before investing. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the Risk Disclosure documents carefully before investing in Equity Shares, Derivatives, Mutual fund, and/or other instruments traded on the Stock Exchanges. As investments are subject to market risks and price fluctuation risk, there is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objectives shall be achieved. Lemonn (Formerly known as NU Investors Technologies Pvt. Ltd) do not guarantee any assured returns on any investments. Past performance of securities/instruments is not indicative of their future performance.