Headline takeaways
- Indices snapped an 8-day losing streak after the RBI kept rates on hold; banks/financials led the rebound. Nifty 50 closed 24,836 (+0.9%), Sensex 80,983 (+0.9%). India VIX cooled to ~10.3.
- Rupee firmed (~88.69/USD) as the dollar softened; RBI’s pause and supportive measures aided sentiment.
- Global cues: Europe firmer (FTSE at records intraday), oil steadied around mid-$60s; risk tone mixed amid the U.S. government shutdown.
- Holiday note: Indian equities are shut Thu, 2 Oct (Gandhi Jayanti); trade resumes Fri, 3 Oct.
Market scoreboard (close)
| Index | Level | Δ Day |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,836 | +0.92% |
| Sensex | 80,983 | +0.89% |
| India VIX | 10.29 | −7% |
Source: closing wrap & intraday updates; VIX from the same report.
Sectoral performance (NSE)
| Sector | Move |
|---|---|
| Media | +3.97% (top gainer) |
| Bank | ~+1.3% |
| Financial Services | ~+1.3% |
| Healthcare | ~+1.3% |
| PSU Bank | only laggard |
Summary from closing report.
Top movers (Nifty constituents)
Gainers (notable): Tata Motors (top), Shriram Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Adani Enterprises.
Losers (notable): Bajaj Finance, SBI, UltraTech Cement.
Key statistics & breadth
- Broader market: Midcap50 & Smallcap50 up ~1% in sympathy with benchmarks.
- FX: INR stronger vs USD (≈88.69).
- Commodities: Brent steady in the mid-$60s after this week’s slide.
What moved the market (today)
- RBI pause + dovish tone: A second consecutive hold after earlier H1CY25 cuts soothed nerves; liquidity comfort supported banks/financials.
- Positioning/oversold bounce after an extended down-leg; breadth improved.
- Rupee bounce & softer oil: eased macro anxiety for importers and rate-sensitives.
- Corporate catalysts (see below) added stock-specific momentum.
Corporate updates (highlights)
- Tata Motors: demerger implementation in focus; record date 14 Oct for CV business shares—stock led gains.
- Adani Enterprises: ARTL to acquire two highway SPVs; stock advanced.
Global cues snapshot
- Europe: FTSE 100 hit fresh intraday records; healthcare outperformed.
- U.S.: Government shutdown injected caution; futures mixed.
- Oil: Stabilized after recent decline on OPEC+ headlines.
Stocks to watch (near term)
- Tata Motors (demerger timelines), Shriram Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Enterprises (deal news).
- Rate/FX beneficiaries: select banks/NBFCs, autos, realty on improved sentiment and lower crude.
Technicals & levels (next session: Fri, 3 Oct 2025)
(Indicative zones based on today’s close and recent swing areas; manage risk accordingly.)
- Nifty 50:
- Support: 24,650 / 24,500 (gap & recent base).
- Resistance: 24,900 / 25,000 (psychological & supply).
- Tone: Cautiously constructive—follow-through buying needed above 24,900; dips to 24,650–24,500 likely get bought if global risk holds.
- Bank Nifty (by implication from sector leadership):
- Support: ~51,700–51,400.
- Resistance: ~52,400–52,700.
- Tone: Positive bias while above 51,700; watch PSU banks (lagged today) for catch-up.
Trading playbook for tomorrow (Fri)
- Bias: Buy-on-dips within support zones; lighten near resistance clusters.
- What can change the tone?
- Bullish: U.S./EU risk stabilizes, oil stays sub-$70s, INR remains firm.
- Bearish: Risk-off from shutdown headlines or a reversal in banks/financials leadership.
