On 30 December 2025 the Indian market finished a volatile expiry-day session virtually unchanged. Thin year‑end volumes, derivatives expiry and continued selling by foreign institutions kept the broader market cautious, but selective buying in cyclical pockets limited the downside. During the session the BSE Sensex oscillated in a narrow range before closing just below 84,700, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped marginally below the 26,000 mark. A stronger rupee and buoyant metal and PSU‑bank shares offset weakness in technology, healthcare and consumer names. The market breadth remained negative, reflecting risk‑off positioning ahead of the new year.
Major indices
| Index / indicator | 30 Dec 2025 close | Change vs previous close |
|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex | 84,675.08 | ▼ 20.46 pts (▼ 0.02 %) |
| Nifty 50 | 25,938.85 | ▼ 3.25 pts (▼ 0.01 %) |
| Nifty Bank | ≈ 58,932 | ▼ ≈ 79 pts (▼ 0.13 %) |
| Nifty Midcap 100 | ≈ lower by 0.15 % | Marginal decline |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | ≈ lower by 0.28 % | Minor decline |
| India VIX (fear index) | ≈ 9.7 | ↑ ≈ 6 % vs previous day |
| Rupee (USD/INR) | ₹ 89.78 | gained ~₹ 0.20; stronger rupee |
| 10‑yr govt bond yield | ≈ 6.60 % | steady with thin trading |
Notes: mid‑cap and small‑cap indices slipped modestly, indicating broader market caution. The rupee strengthened as end‑month rebalancing flows met limited dollar demand. Government bond yields remained range‑bound ahead of large state-bond issuance.
Sectoral performance
| Nifty sector index | % change (approx.) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Metal | ≈ +2 % | Benefited from higher commodity prices; Tata Steel and Hindalco gained. |
| PSU Bank | ≈ +2 % | Buying in SBI and other PSU banks amid value buying. |
| Auto | ≈ +1 % | Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto rallied on hopes of robust sales. |
| Financials (Bank Nifty) | ≈ –0.13 % | Profit‑taking in private banks; PSU banks cushioned the index. |
| IT | –0.5 % to –1 % | Infosys, HCL Tech and other IT majors slid on weak global tech cues. |
| Realty / Consumer durables | –0.5 % to –1 % | Demand concerns and profit‑booking. |
| Healthcare & defence | –0.5 % to –1 % | Hospitals and healthcare stocks underperformed. |
Cyclicals such as metals and PSU banks attracted fresh positions, while defensives and technology faced selling pressure. Overall sectoral divergence suggested rotational allocation rather than broad‑based risk appetite.
Key statistics
| Statistic | Reading |
|---|---|
| Advancers vs decliners (BSE) | ≈ 1,718 advances vs 2,113 declines; 137 unchanged |
| FII (foreign institutional investors) flows | Net sellers ~₹ 2,760 crore |
| DII (domestic institutional investors) flows | Net buyers ~₹ 2,643 crore |
| Nifty volatility (India VIX) | ≈ 9.7 (up ~6 %) – still low but off multi‑month lows |
| Market turnover | Subdued – year‑end holidays and expiry kept volumes thin |
Top gainers and losers – Nifty 50 constituents
| Top gainers | Price* | % chg | Brief drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) | ~₹ 1,720 | ≈ +2 % | Strong vehicle demand; auto sector rotation. |
| Tata Steel | ~₹ 130 | ≈ +2 % | Rising steel prices; metals rally. |
| Hindalco Industries | ~₹ 550 | ≈ +2 % | Aluminium strength; positive commodity cues. |
| Shriram Finance | ~₹ 983 | ≈ +3 % | Morgan Stanley reaffirmed ‘overweight’; ratings upgrade. |
| Bajaj Auto | ~₹ 6,660 | ≈ +1–2 % | Expectations of robust monthly sales. |
| Top losers | Price* | % chg | Brief drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Healthcare | ~₹ 820 | ≈ –2 % | Profit‑booking after recent run. |
| Eternal (quick‑commerce) | ~₹ 128 | ≈ –2 % | News of Blinkit CFO resignation; sentiment hit. |
| Apollo Hospitals | ~₹ 5,120 | ≈ –1.5 % | Broader healthcare weakness. |
| InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) | ~₹ 2,800 | ≈ –1–2 % | Mixed outlook; high fuel prices. |
| Tata Consumer Products | ~₹ 1,050 | ≈ –1 % | Profit‑taking; lack of near‑term triggers. |
*Prices are closing levels rounded for readability.
What moved the market
- Derivative expiry and thin year‑end volumes: The December series derivative expiry kept traders cautious. With many market participants away for holidays, lower volumes magnified intraday swings and encouraged profit‑booking.
- Continued FII selling: Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers for a fifth session, paring positions ahead of year‑end. Domestic institutions absorbed much of the selling but were reluctant to chase prices higher.
- Mixed global cues: Wall Street’s major indices fell on Monday as technology mega‑caps retreated. Asian markets traded flat to lower, and Tokyo stocks declined on profit‑taking. Europe was largely unchanged. The U.S. dollar held steady ahead of Federal Reserve minutes, which added to global caution.
- Commodity strength: Metals rallied as copper and aluminium futures remained firm, boosting Tata Steel and Hindalco. Precious metals were volatile but remained elevated, and domestic silver futures jumped. This improved sentiment in resource‑linked stocks.
- Rotational buying: Investors rotated into cyclical sectors such as metals, PSU banks and autos, expecting strong domestic demand and budgetary support. Defensive sectors, technology, healthcare and consumer staples lagged.
- Stronger rupee: The rupee appreciated about 20 paise as end‑month flows and intervention supported the currency. A firm rupee limited imported inflation worries and supported metal importers.
- Corporate news:
- BEL received ₹ 569 crore of fresh defence orders, reinforcing revenue visibility.
- Arvind Fashions agreed to buy Flipkart’s 31.25 % stake in its Flying Machine subsidiary for ₹ 135 crore, strengthening its denim brand control.
- Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) emerged as lowest bidder for a ₹ 201 crore East Coast Railway project.
- Cupid Ltd approved plans to set up an FMCG plant in Saudi Arabia, aiming at GCC expansion.
- Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) obtained RBI approval to open an IFSC banking unit at GIFT City.
- NTPC Green Energy commissioned another 13.98 MW of its Khavda‑I solar project.
- Grasim Industries announced a composite scheme to transfer Essel Mining’s renewable energy business to Aditya Birla Renewables via slump sale.
- RBL Bank accepted Executive Director Rajeev Ahuja’s retirement and appointed Jaideep Iyer as whole‑time director; the stock rose on the management change.
- Hyundai Motor India entered the commercial mobility segment with Prime HB (hatchback) and Prime SD (sedan) taxi models.
- BL Kashyap won a ₹ 364 crore order from ESPN Property Builders, boosting its order book.
These stock‑specific developments contributed to selective buying in the market.
Global cues
- United States: Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday as investors booked profits in megacap technology stocks. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 fell modestly, with attention shifting to Federal Reserve minutes and upcoming economic data. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed.
- Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 hovered near flat levels, reflecting holiday‑driven thin volumes. There was little new macro data, and traders awaited U.S. cues.
- Asia: The MSCI Asia Pacific index was slightly lower as gains in resources companies were offset by weakness in Chinese stocks. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell on profit‑taking. Hang Seng and Shanghai indices traded mixed as investors assessed year‑end macro signals and property‑sector news.
- Commodities: Gold prices steadied after a volatile session, while domestic silver futures jumped more than 3 %. Copper prices held near record highs but showed signs of consolidation. Crude oil remained range‑bound.
Stocks to watch (31 December 2025)
Investors looking for stock‑specific action should monitor companies with fresh triggers:
| Stock | Reason to watch |
|---|---|
| BEL | Fresh ₹ 569 crore orders could support earnings momentum. |
| Arvind Fashions | Acquisition of Flipkart’s stake in the Flying Machine brand enhances control and may aid margins. |
| RVNL | Lowest bidder for East Coast Railway project worth ₹ 201 crore. |
| Cupid Ltd | Plan to set up FMCG unit in Saudi Arabia could unlock new markets. |
| IOB | RBI approval for an IFSC banking unit at GIFT City may expand international operations. |
| NTPC Green Energy | Commissioning of solar project tranches indicates execution progress. |
| Grasim Industries | Transfer of Essel Mining’s renewable business to subsidiary streamlines operations. |
| Shriram Finance | Rating upgrade and optimistic analyst view may sustain momentum. |
| Tata Steel & Hindalco | Continued metal strength; watch for follow‑through buying. |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | Auto sales data due; stock near 52‑week highs. |
| RBL Bank | Leadership changes and potential re-rating. |
Outlook for 31 December 2025 (next trading day)
- Market tone: Expect a range‑bound to slightly positive session as derivative expiry pressures subside and traders position ahead of the New Year. Participation will likely remain low due to holiday‑related absence of global investors. Rotational flows may continue into cyclicals like metals and autos.
- Support and resistance levels:
- Nifty 50 – near‑term support at 25,900–25,850, with deeper support around 25,700. Immediate resistance at 26,000; a break above 26,100–26,150 is needed to revive bullish momentum.
- Sensex – support zone around 84,400–84,500; resistance near 85,000–85,500.
- Bank Nifty – support in the 58,700–58,600 area; resistance at 59,800–60,100.
- Expected tone: With momentum indicators still weak and India VIX off its lows, traders are advised to adopt buy‑near‑support and sell‑near‑resistance strategies. The broader trend remains intact as long as indices hold above the key support zones. Expect consolidation with stock‑specific moves as investors await new catalysts in early 2026.
Overall, the final session of 2025 is likely to be quiet, with cautious optimism in cyclicals, profit‑booking in overbought names and limited institutional participation.
