India Market Outlook – 24 September 2025

nifty sensex going down

Dalal Street extended its losing streak to Day 4 as bears pressed on the frontline and banking counters. U.S. H-1B visa headlines kept IT on the back foot, foreign flows stayed cautious, and the rupee hugged record-weak levels—together weighing on risk appetite.


The Wrap: Indices & Close

IndexClose% Chg
Sensex81,715.63−0.47%
Nifty 5025,056.90−0.45%
Bank Nifty*~55,1xx~−0.7%
Nifty Midcap 100**lower−1.0%
Nifty Smallcap 100**lower−0.7%

*Intraday updates showed Bank Nifty around 55,100 and down ~0.7%; final tick hovered in that zone. **ET’s closing wrap flagged midcaps/smallcaps down ~1.0%/~0.7% respectively.

Sector Scorecard

SectorMove TodayNotes
IT↓H-1B visa fee shock kept sentiment soft.
Financials↓Banks & lenders under pressure; Bank Nifty lagged.
Auto↓Profit-taking post recent rally; Tata Motors weak.
FMCG~flat to mixedRelatively resilient versus the tape.
Realty/Metals↓Risk-off tone across cyclicals.

Market Breadth

Weak: Losers outpaced gainers on the NSE; most sectoral indices finished in the red.

Nifty 50 – Top Movers

Note: Names reflect the closing leaderboard and intraday leadership; percentage changes are approximate where sources provide discrete figures.

Gainers

Stock% ChgWhy It Moved
Trent+0.5–1%Defensive/retail resilience; stock featured among top intraday gainers.
SBIflat to +0.5%Outperformed peers despite bank sell-off.
Asian Paints+0.5–1%Defensive bid in staples/consumption.
Maruti Suzukiflat to +0.5%Mixed auto tape; relative strength within OEMs.
NTPC/ONGCflat to +0.5%Energy/utilities defensives found buyers.

Losers

Stock% ChgWhy It Moved
Hero MotoCorp−1.3% to −1.8%Autos corrected; two-wheeler laggard.
Titan−1–2%Broad-based profit-taking in consumption plays.
Tech Mahindra−1.3%IT under pressure amid H-1B noise.
Tata Motors−2.7%Auto index weak; JLR factory shutdown extension cited.
ICICI Bank−0.9%Banks sold off; heavyweights weighed on Nifty.

What Drove Today

  • H-1B visa headlines: Fresh $100k fee proposal kept IT subdued; sector fell again.
  • FII outflows: Persistent foreign selling continued to sap momentum.
  • Crude & INR: Brent hovered near $68; rupee closed ~₹88.69/USD, just off record weakness -both adding to macro caution.
  • Global cues: Wall Street was mixed after Tuesday’s pullback; Fed path still in focus.

Global Check

GaugeLatestMove
Dow Jones (prev. session)Higher+0.66% intraday strength, mixed close overall context.
S&P 500 (prev. session)Slightly lower−0.6% Tuesday pullback.
Nasdaq (prev. session)LowerTech cooled after recent run.
Brent Crude~$68/bblFirmer on inventory draw.
USD/INR (spot close)88.69Flat; RBI likely smoothed volatility.

Stocks to Watch (near term)

  • IT majors (INFY, TCS, TECHM): Sensitivity to U.S. immigration policy headlines remains high; watch for any clarifications/industry commentary.
  • Auto OEMs (Tata Motors, M&M, Hero MotoCorp): Profit-taking could persist; JLR-related updates and festive-season dispatch data in focus.
  • Banks (ICICI, HDFC Bank, SBI): Track Bank Nifty behavior near 55k handle and FII flows.
  • Rupee-sensitive plays (importers/exporters): Elevated USD/INR could alter margin math; hedging updates key.

Technical Dashboard

IndexImmediate SupportDeeper SupportNear ResistanceBias
Nifty 5025,00024,850–24,80025,300–25,500Range with downside risk below 25k. Moneycontro
Bank Nifty55,00054,50055,600–56,000Sellers active below 55,600.

Trading Outlook for 25 September 2025 (Thu)

Tone: Cautious/negative bias unless Nifty reclaims and sustains above 25,300. A decisive break below 25,000 can invite 24,850–24,800. Bank Nifty strength hinges on a close back above 55,600.

Buy zones (traders):

  • Nifty dips to 25,000–24,950 with tight stops below 24,900.
  • Select defensives (FMCG, utilities) on intraday pullbacks.

Sell zones (traders):

  • Rallies into 25,300–25,500 on Nifty; 55,600–56,000 on Bank Nifty, unless breadth improves.

Sectors:

  • Defensive tilt: FMCG, select utilities may outperform on risk-off days.
  • Underweight near term: IT (headline risk), cyclicals (autos, realty) until breadth stabilizes.

Quick Takeaway

Macro jitters + weak breadth = respect support. For traders, fade bounces into resistance and buy only at supports with disciplined stops. For investors, stagger entries in quality large caps as the tape digests visa/FX noise—keep an eye on 25k (Nifty) and 55.6k (Bank Nifty) for signposts.

Disclaimer

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