India Market Outlook – 17 December 2025

nifty sensex going down

Market summary

Index (17 Dec 2025 close)ValueChange
BSE Sensex84,559.65▼120.21 (‑0.14%)
Nifty 5025,818.55▼41.55 (‑0.16%)
Nifty Bank58,926.75▼107.85 (‑0.18%)
Nifty Midcap 10059,388.85▼321.95 (‑0.54%)
Nifty IT38,172.05▲109.55 (+0.29%)
BSE Midcap index≈45,946▼0.53%
BSE Smallcap index≈50,313▼0.85%
India VIX (volatility index)≈9.8▼about 2.3% (volatility remained low)
USD/INR (Rupee)≈90.37strengthened ~0.7% (RBI intervention supported the rupee)

Market breadth remained weak with roughly two declining stocks for every advance. PSU banks were the only major sector to close higher, while mid‑cap and small‑cap indices underperformed.

Sectoral performance

The Nifty PSU Bank index rose ~1.2% as State Bank of India and other public‑sector lenders rallied on expectations of stable credit growth. Information technology (Nifty IT) edged higher on bargain buying after recent declines. Most other sectoral indices fell:

  • Nifty Media lost about 2%, dragged by Zee Entertainment and other broadcasters.
  • Nifty Realty, Consumer Durables, Chemicals and FMCG declined roughly 0.4–1% as investors booked profits in interest‑rate‑sensitive names.
  • Nifty Private Bank, Financial Services, Healthcare and Auto indices slipped 0.4–0.8% due to profit‑taking in large private banks and weakness in healthcare stocks.

Key statistics

MetricData
Advance–declineAround 1,055 advancing stocks vs 2,084 declining on BSE; market breadth negative.
FII/DII flowsForeign institutional investors continued to sell (approx. ₹2,300 crore net outflow the previous day) while domestic institutions bought, cushioning the decline.
RupeeClosed near ₹90.37 per US dollar after the RBI intervened to support the currency when it slipped below ₹91 early in the day.
India VIXEnded near 9.8 (down ~2.3%), indicating subdued volatility expectations.
Midcap & small‑capBSE Midcap index fell ≈0.53% and the Smallcap index ≈0.85%, signalling broad‑based profit‑taking outside blue chips.

Top gainers & losers

Percentage changes are approximate based on closing prices.

CategoryStock% ChgNotes
Top gainers (Nifty 50)Shriram Finance+2.1%PSU‑bank exposure and improving asset quality drove buying.
State Bank of India+2.0%Benefited from rotation into public‑sector lenders and rupee strength.
Hindalco Industries+1.7%Higher aluminium prices and healthy guidance supported sentiment.
Eicher Motors+1.6%Continued demand for premium motorcycles and better export outlook.
Coal India+1.2%Softness in global coal prices aided margins and dividend expectations.
Top losers (Nifty 50)Max Healthcare−3.7%Profit‑booking after a strong run in hospital stocks.
Apollo Hospitals−3.0%Under pressure along with healthcare peers.
Trent Ltd.−2.8%Retail stocks cooled after sharp rallies.
Bajaj Auto−2.0%Weak 2‑wheeler export data and cautious guidance.
HDFC Life Insurance−2.0%Insurer stocks lagged as bond yields remained elevated.
Other notable moversAkzo Nobel India−13.6%Promoter Imperial Chemical Industries’ stake sale spooked investors.
Indraprastha Gas+5.1%Beat revenue estimates and rose on hopes of tariff hikes.
Dilip Buildcon+5.6%Won new road projects, boosting optimism about the order book.

What moved the market?

  • Profit‑taking after recent gains: Both the Sensex and Nifty had rallied strongly to all‑time highs earlier in the month. With valuations rich and major indices near record territory, traders locked in profits, particularly in financials and consumer stocks.
  • Persistent foreign selling: FIIs continued to offload Indian equities amid concerns that high valuations and a weakening rupee could compress returns. Domestic institutions absorbed some of this selling but not enough to prevent an overall decline.
  • Mixed global cues: U.S. markets closed lower overnight (Dow −0.62%, S&P 500 −0.24%) after mixed jobs data and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut timeline. However, the Nasdaq edged up due to selective tech buying. Asian markets were modestly higher on expectations that the Bank of Japan might maintain ultra‑low rates; this provided limited support to Indian IT stocks.
  • Currency volatility: The rupee briefly breached ₹91 per dollar, prompting RBI intervention. A firmer rupee reduces imported inflation but can hurt IT exporters, creating sectoral rotation.
  • Domestic macro factors: Market participants remain focused on high CPI inflation and the government’s borrowing plan. With bond yields elevated, banks and rate‑sensitive sectors saw cautious trading.

Global cues

RegionRecent trendImpact on India
U.S. marketsDow and S&P 500 closed lower; Nasdaq gained slightly on selective tech buying. Investors await more data to confirm easing labour markets and possible rate cuts.Mixed cues led to cautious sentiment in Indian equities, especially in sectors sensitive to global demand such as IT and metals.
Asia (Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai)Indices were modestly higher as traders bet that the Bank of Japan would keep rates accommodative despite rising bond yields.Helped Nifty IT to outperform, though overall risk appetite remained subdued.
Crude oilWTI crude traded near US$55.8/bbl, up around 0.7%.Low oil prices benefit India as a net importer, but energy stocks were mixed.
Bond yields & currencyU.S. 10‑year Treasury yield hovered around 4.16%. Indian government bond yields stayed elevated, pressuring bank spreads.Higher yields dampen appetite for risk assets and favour defensive plays.

Stocks to watch & corporate updates

Investors may watch these names for potential moves on the next trading day:

  • HCL Technologies: Investors are keen on sector rotation in IT; any updates on large deals or guidance could influence the stock.
  • Akzo Nobel India: Volatility is expected following the large promoter stake sale; intraday price swings are likely.
  • Kaynes Technology / Kaynes Semicon: The company’s subsidiary announced strategic partnerships with Mitsui & AOI, positioning itself in semiconductor manufacturing—an area of high government support. Watch for volume spikes.
  • Saregama India: The media firm is investing about ₹325 crore in Bhansali Productions; the deal expands its content portfolio and may draw interest from investors seeking exposure to media and entertainment.
  • Tata Power & Waaree Renewable: Both companies are prominent in renewables. Tata Power remains in focus for its pipeline of solar and wind projects, while Waaree Renewable signed a power purchase agreement for 300 MW and formed subsidiaries for renewable asset management.
  • Indian Overseas Bank: The government launched an offer for sale to offload a 2% stake at a floor price of ₹34; trading activity could be volatile.
  • Glenmark Pharma: Its subsidiary Glenmark Specialty signed an exclusive licensing deal with Jiangsu Hansoh; investors will watch the implications for its specialty pipeline.
  • GMR Power & Urban Infra: The board will meet to raise funds, which may create trading opportunity in the stock.
  • Ola Electric: Co‑founder Bhavish Aggarwal sold 2.6 crore shares to repay a promoter loan; the move, though reducing promoter holding, may lift overhang concerns.
  • Other corporate news: Protean eGov to acquire 4.95% of NSDL Payments Bank; Thermax forms a step‑down subsidiary; CESC’s subsidiary secured a wind‑turbine tower contract; eClerx raised the buyback price; RailTel received a letter of award for a telecom project; Bayer CropScience faces a GST penalty; Kansai Nerolac sells 60% stake in its Sri Lankan unit; Canara Robeco AMC declared an interim dividend of ₹1.50 per share; Acme Solar added 8 MW to its wind project; Ahluwalia Contracts won a ₹888‑crore construction order.

Technical outlook and levels for 18 Dec 2025

  • Nifty 50: The index closed below the 21‑day exponential moving average (EMA) near 25,950, indicating a mild bearish bias. The RSI has turned negative. Immediate support lies around the 50‑day EMA near 25,700; a breach could drag the index towards 25,500. On the upside, 25,950–26,000 is the first resistance zone. A decisive break above 26,000 may open the way to 26,150–26,300, but that appears unlikely without strong global cues.
  • Bank Nifty: The index is consolidating between 58,800 (support) and 59,500–60,000 (resistance). A move below 58,800 could trigger deeper selling to 58,000, while a break above 60,000 would indicate renewed strength.
  • India VIX: At ~9.8, volatility expectations remain low. However, any sudden spike above 10.5 could signal caution.

Outlook for tomorrow (18 Dec 2025)

The tone for the next trading day is expected to be cautious with a negative bias. Persistent foreign fund outflows, mixed global cues and elevated bond yields may cap gains. A stable rupee and ongoing domestic institutional buying provide support at lower levels. Traders should watch the 25,700 support in the Nifty and 58,800 in the Bank Nifty; breaking these could accelerate selling. A close above 26,000 would be needed to restore bullish momentum. Rotation into PSU banks and IT may continue, while profit‑taking could weigh on healthcare, consumer durables and mid‑cap names.