India Market Outlook – 21 Nov 2025

nifty sensex going down

Top indices – closing values and daily change

IndexCloseDaily change
Nifty 50~26 068 (‑0.47%)Fell about 124 points, slipping below the 26 100 level after profit‑booking at record highs.
Sensex~85 232 (‑0.47%)Down about 401 points as broad‑based selling pulled large‑caps and mid‑caps lower.
Nifty Bank (approx.)~59 000 (‑0.3%)Underperformed the benchmark; weakness in private lenders and profit‑booking kept the index subdued.
BSE MidcapDown ≈1.3%Mid‑cap and small‑cap indices saw sharper corrections as traders reduced risk exposure.
BSE SmallcapDown ≈1.3%Small‑caps corrected amid a risk‑off tone; breadth was negative.
India VIX≈13.4 (+10%)Volatility index jumped double‑digits, signalling rising caution and potential consolidation.

Sectoral performance

SectorPerformance/Trend (21 Nov 2025)
FMCGOnly major gainer; defensive buying kept the index marginally in the green.
MetalsAmong the biggest laggards; down ~1% as global metal prices weakened and a fire at Hindalco’s aluminium plant increased supply concerns.
RealtyFell ~1%; profit‑taking and concerns about higher borrowing costs weighed on developers.
PSU BanksDown ~1%; profit‑booking after a recent rally.
Capital goods & infrastructureSlightly negative as traders locked in gains.
ITMild decline; stretched valuations led to selling despite strong results from global tech leaders.
AutoFlat to marginally positive as consumer demand remained supportive; small gains in Maruti and M&M limited losses.

Key statistics

  • Market breadth: Advances lagged decliners; less than half of NSE stocks closed higher as mid‑caps and small‑caps underperformed.
  • Rupee: The Indian rupee closed at a record low around ₹89.40 per USD (down from ₹88.70), adding import cost pressures.
  • Institutional flows: Provisional data suggested foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers in cash equities, while domestic institutions continued to absorb supply. For the previous session FIIs bought about ₹2 450 crore and DIIs bought around ₹1 120 crore, but flows on 21 Nov were muted as caution prevailed.
  • India VIX: Jumped to around 13.4 (≈+10%) as traders priced in higher near‑term volatility.

Top gainers and losers (Nifty 50 – 21 Nov 2025)

Top gainers

CompanyPrice (₹)Change (%)Notes
Maruti Suzuki15 977+1.11%Auto maker led gainers on hopes of sustained SUV demand; relative defensive nature provided support.
Max Healthcare1 181.1+1.04%Healthcare services stock gained on expectations of resilient earnings and positive sector outlook.
Interglobe Aviation (IndiGo)5 843.5+1.00%Airline remained firm due to robust traffic and lower fuel prices.
Mahindra & Mahindra3 749.6+0.89%Strength in SUV sales and optimistic FY30 revenue plan supported buying.
Tata Consumer Products1 183.1+0.78%Defensive FMCG buying amid market weakness.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles362.3+0.68%EV‑driven optimism and stable domestic demand aided gains.
ITC407.9+0.59%FMCG major benefited from defensive rotation.

Top losers

CompanyPrice (₹)Change (%)Notes
Hindalco Industries777.7–2.76%Fire at an aluminium plant and concerns over metal demand led to heavy selling.
Tata Steel168.0–2.59%Global steel price softness and fears of cheap imports weighed on the stock.
JSW Steel1 140.3–2.54%Profit‑taking after recent gains; global metal weakness.
Bajaj Finance1 004.1–2.38%Traders booked profits as valuations remained stretched amid rising yields.
HCL Technologies1 608.0–2.27%IT stock slipped on valuation concerns despite strong global tech earnings.
Bajaj Finserv2 052.4–2.06%Financial services firm came under pressure following a recent rally.
Eternal301.9–1.61%Mid‑cap stock declined amid risk‑off sentiment.

What moved the market

  • Profit‑booking at record highs: After hitting fresh highs earlier in the week, the Nifty and Sensex failed to sustain momentum. Traders booked profits across most sectors, especially metals and financials.
  • Weak global cues: U.S. markets had sold off sharply ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and after inconclusive U.S. jobs data, leading to renewed doubts about a December Fed rate cut. European indices were at one‑month lows and the Hang Seng tech index dropped significantly, triggering risk‑off sentiment.
  • Surging volatility: India VIX jumped more than 10% to about 13.4 as traders hedged portfolios. The spike in volatility and weakness on Bank Nifty charts signalled caution.
  • Rupee depreciation: The rupee slid to a fresh record low around ₹89.40 per USD, increasing concerns over imported inflation.
  • Sector‑specific pressures:
    • Metals: Extension of quality‑control exemptions on certain steel grades stoked fears of import competition, while the Hindalco plant fire added supply risk.
    • IT: Despite strong global tech earnings, stretched valuations in Indian IT stocks triggered selling.
    • Financials and realty: Concerns about delays in India–U.S. trade talks and soft manufacturing PMI data reduced risk appetite, hurting lenders and realty names.

Global cues

  • United States: Wall Street benchmarks declined for a fourth straight session as traders awaited Nvidia’s earnings. The run‑up to the results raised concerns that the AI‑driven rally could be overdone. U.S. Treasury yields slipped slightly and gold reversed earlier losses.
  • Europe: The STOXX 600 closed at a one‑month low amid profit‑taking in technology names and caution ahead of central‑bank meetings.
  • Asia: Asian markets were mixed; the Hang Seng tech index slumped, while Japan’s Nikkei pulled back after strong gains. The sell‑off in U.S. tech weighed on Asian sentiment.
  • Commodities: Brent crude traded around $60–62/bbl, while gold firmed above $2 650/oz amid safe‑haven demand.

Stocks to watch and corporate updates

  • TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) – Announced a strategic partnership with private‑equity firm TPG to build a data‑centre business (‘Hypervault’). The partners plan to invest about ₹18 000 crore; TPG will invest $1 billion (~₹8 820 crore) for a 27.5–49% stake.
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank – Board approved a 5‑for‑1 stock split, turning each ₹5 face‑value share into five fully paid‑up shares of face value ₹1. The bank said the move would improve liquidity and broaden shareholder base.
  • Hyundai Motor India – Invested about ₹21.46 crore as the second tranche in a wind‑farm project (FPEL TN Wind Farm); indicates focus on renewable energy.
  • Reliance Industries – Halted use of Russian crude at its export‑oriented Jamnagar refinery to comply with EU sanctions. The company said domestic refinery operations remain unaffected.
  • Groww (Billionbrains Garage Ventures) – Scheduled to announce Q2 FY26 results; investors watched for performance of the online brokerage.
  • AWL Agri Business – Reports suggested Adani Commodities may sell up to a 7% stake (worth ~₹2 500 crore) via block deals at a floor price of ₹275 per share.
  • Godrej Properties – Acquired a ~75‑acre land parcel in Nagpur, surpassing its FY26 land‑acquisition target; development will provide ~1.7 million sq ft of saleable area.
  • PVR INOX – Plans to add 100 cinema screens in FY26 while shutting 10–15 underperforming screens; focusing on growth in smaller cities.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra – Outlined a plan to grow its auto‑sector revenue eightfold by FY30, with strong emphasis on SUVs and global markets.
  • IRB Infrastructure – Proposed transferring the 27.5 km Gandeva–Ena section of the Delhi‑Mumbai expressway to its listed InvIT fund for ₹1 702 crore, to unlock capital for new projects.
  • Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) – Signed a 161‑room ‘Gateway’ hotel project in Jaipur with the Shri Modi Group, taking its tally in Jaipur to 16 hotels (five under development).
  • JSW Energy – Received creditors’ approval to acquire Raigarh Champa Rail Infrastructure, signalling expansion into transportation.

Outlook for the next trading day (Monday, 24 Nov 2025)

  • Technical levels: The Nifty 50 closed below its breakout zone of 26 100 and could consolidate further.
    • Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 26 250 (Thursday’s high); a decisive break above could open the path toward 26 500.
    • Support: Immediate support is around 26 000–25 900, with stronger support at 25 800–25 700. As long as the index holds above 26 000, the overall uptrend remains intact.
    • Momentum indicators: RSI around 62 and a positive MACD histogram still favour buyers, but a spike in volatility and a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on 21 Nov signal that traders might choose to consolidate.
  • Bank Nifty: Charts point to caution; support is near 58 700–58 500, while resistance lies around 59 200–59 400. The index will need a close above 59 200 to regain momentum.
  • Expected tone: Markets may open flat to slightly positive, with global tech sentiment and Nvidia’s earnings guiding direction. Cautious consolidation is likely as traders monitor U.S. data and the rupee. Defensive FMCG and auto stocks may continue to attract buying on dips, while metals and realty could underperform until global cues improve. The overall trend remains bullish, but volatility may persist; traders should use dips to accumulate quality stocks and maintain stop‑losses near key support levels.

Disclaimer

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