A tight, defensive session ended softer ahead of the RBI policy tomorrow. PSU banks outperformed, while FMCG and media dragged. The rupee notched another record‐low close; crude stayed subdued.
Indices at Close
| Index | Close | Δ (pts) | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensex | 80,267.62 | -97.25 | -0.12% |
| Nifty 50 | 24,611.10 | -2.50 | -0.01% |
Note: Headline index closes and % moves are official end-of-day prints; mid/smallcap % moves are reported but exact index levels weren’t published in the same wrap.
Sectoral Scorecard
| Sector (NSE) | % Chg | Sector (NSE) | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU Bank | +1.84% | Media | -1.23% |
| Auto | +0.40% | Consumer Durables | -0.87% |
| Bank | +0.32% | Realty | -0.82% |
| Metals | +0.30% | IT | -0.11% |
Market Breadth (Nifty 50)
- Advances: 28
- Declines: 22
- New 52-week Highs/Lows (broad market): Lows outnumbered highs; PSU banks, metals saw most green.
(If you want, I can expand this with exact closes and % changes for all top movers.)
What Drove the Tape
- PSU banks led on rotation and pre-RBI positioning.
- Metals edged higher on a slightly weaker dollar/firm commodity tone.
- FMCG & Media weighed; IT stayed soft.
- INR: record-low close at ₹88.7875/$ pressured risk appetite.
- Crude: Brent hovered near $67–70/bbl, supportive for cement/auto margins.
Global Cues (as of India close)
| Market/Cue | Level | % Chg / Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (prev US close) | ~6,644 | +0.6% |
| Dow Jones (prev US close) | ~46,316 | +0.2% |
| Brent Crude | ~$67–70/bbl | Rangebound, oversupply worries |
| USD/INR | 88.7875 | Record-low close |
Stocks to Watch – Immediate Triggers
- SBI, PNB, BoB: Leadership in PSU banks; watch RBI liquidity/CRR tone.
- UltraTech Cement: Margin tailwind if crude stays benign; pricing commentary.
- Adani Ports / JSW Steel / Hindalco: Sensitive to global commodities & USD path.
- InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo): Flows/vol post index rejig; ATF trend key.
- IT pack (TCS, INFY, TECHM): Rupee tailwind vs demand caution—order wins, guidance.
Key Technical Levels (spot reference)
| Index | Support Zones | Resistance Zones | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,600–24,500, then 24,400 | 24,700–24,900 | 24,4xx aligns with 200-DEMA watch-zone. |
| Bank Nifty | 54,200–54,500 | 55,000–55,300 | Outperformance bias if above mid-54k. |
Tomorrow’s Playbook (Oct 1, 2025)
- Tone: Event-driven around RBI; expect whipsaws first hour, trend post-policy.
- Buy zones (traders): Nifty 24,550–24,600 with stops < 24,500; accumulate PSU banks, select metals, autos on dips.
- Sell zones (traders): Fades into 24,800–24,900 if rally lacks breadth; IT/FMCG for mean-reversion shorts on bounces.
- Investors: Use weakness to stagger entries in quality banks and cement; crude benign, INR weak—be selective.
Quick Take
With the rupee at fresh lows and crude contained, the market leaned toward domestic cyclicals—especially PSU banks—while defensives cooled. RBI’s tone tomorrow should decide whether Nifty holds 24,5xx or probes deeper supports. Keep sizes modest and respect levels.
