The week kicked off with a cautious tone as markets stayed range-bound ahead of the RBI’s policy announcement. While energy and O&G stocks supported the indices, banking and FMCG counters weighed on sentiment. The rupee closed near record lows against the dollar, adding pressure on equities.
Index Wrap (Provisional Close)
| Index | Close | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,635 | -0.1% |
| Sensex | 80,365 | -0.1% |
| Bank Nifty | 54,389 | -1.1% |
Note: Final exchange figures may vary slightly from provisional closes.
Sectoral Performance
| Sector | Move Today |
|---|---|
| Oil & Gas / Energy | Strong gains |
| Metals | Mildly positive |
| IT | Mixed |
| Autos | Flat to positive |
| FMCG | Weakness |
Energy and O&G names led the charge on steady crude prices, while FMCG lagged due to muted demand commentary.
Top Nifty 50 Movers
Gainers
| Stock | % Chg | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Energy/Oil PSUs | ↑ | Benefited from stable crude and improved margin outlook |
| Select PSU Banks | ↑ | Value buying ahead of RBI policy |
Losers
| Stock | % Chg | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| FMCG Majors | ↓ | Demand normalization concerns |
| Private Banks | ↓ | Rupee weakness and FPI selling pressure |
Key Market Drivers
- Energy & O&G: Sector strength thanks to stable crude and firm domestic pricing outlook.
- FMCG Weakness: Stocks corrected after reports of subdued demand in rural pockets.
- Rupee Pressure: INR closed near 88.76/USD, raising concerns of imported inflation and foreign outflows.
- Policy Watch: RBI’s upcoming announcement kept investors cautious, with expectations leaning toward a status-quo stance.
Global Cues Snapshot
| Asset / Index | Last Close | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 46,247 | ↑ |
| S&P 500 | 6,638 | ↓ |
| Nasdaq Comp | 22,484 | ↑ |
| Brent Crude | ~85/bbl | Stable |
| USD/INR | 88.76 | INR weaker |
Global markets were mixed, with U.S. indices split and crude trading steady. The rupee’s weakness stood out among Asian peers.
Stocks to Watch
- Oil Marketing & Upstream Companies: Monitor margins and production updates.
- FMCG Majors: Festive demand and inventory cycles will be key.
- Private & PSU Banks: RBI commentary on rates and liquidity may drive moves.
- IT & Pharma Exporters: Currency tailwinds could aid earnings.
Technical Levels
| Index | Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,500 | 24,300 | 24,900 | 25,050 |
| Bank Nifty | 54,000 | 53,600 | 55,200 | 55,700 |
Nifty is likely to trade within 24,500–24,900; a decisive move beyond this band could set the near-term trend.
Outlook for Tomorrow (Tue)
- Tone: Cautious with a sideways bias.
- Buy Zones: Energy & exporters on dips.
- Sell Zones: FMCG and select private banks on rallies.
- Sectors to Track: Energy, Banks (RBI focus), and IT (currency tailwind).
Quick Take
Markets remained in consolidation mode as investors preferred caution ahead of the RBI decision. The rupee’s record-weak levels are the immediate headwind, but strong energy and export themes provide selective opportunities. Traders should respect the 24,500–24,900 Nifty range, keep positions light, and stay nimble with event risk looming.
