Today’s Stock Market Trade Setup for 31st July 2026 | Will Nifty Extend Its Uptrend?
GIFT Nifty futures were trading 68 points higher at 24,431 on Friday morning, indicating a positive start for Indian equities as traders eye resistance near 24,500 after a choppy expiry session. Benchmark indices had opened flat and moved in a volatile range on Thursday, with monthly derivatives expiry on the Sensex adding to intraday swings. Sentiment into today’s trade is being shaped by strong overnight gains in US tech stocks, firm Asian markets and continued domestic institutional buying.
According to NSE IX data, GIFT Nifty was up about 0.28 percent in early deals, suggesting that the Nifty 50 could attempt a move closer to its recent high zone at the open. On Thursday, the spot Nifty oscillated within a narrow band after a flat start, reflecting expiry-related positioning rather than directional conviction. Traders now see the index at an inflection point, with the previous session’s consolidation setting up either a test of higher resistance or a pullback toward immediate support.
Index Performance
Headline indices and volatility gauges will be in focus after Thursday’s rangebound trade and a mild uptick in implied volatility.
| Index | Close | Move & % Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,317.15 | +66.96 pts (+0.28%) | Closed higher after a choppy expiry-driven session, holding above 24,300. |
| GIFT Nifty | 24,431 (approx.) | +68 pts (+0.28%) | Indicates a firm start, with scope to retest the 24,500 region. |
| India VIX | 12.16 | +1.2% | Volatility gauge edged up, signalling modest rise in hedging demand. |
Short term technical commentary points to a constructive bias on the Nifty, with analysts expecting the index to head towards the 24,500 to 24,600 band. This zone is described as a confluence of the current month high and the peak registered in April 2026, making it a key resistance area. “Sentiment is likely to remain positive in the short term, with the potential to rise towards 24,500,” one technical view noted, while flagging that the rally could stall if the index fails to clear this band decisively.
On the downside, immediate support for the Nifty is seen at 24,200, a level that traders will watch closely on intraday dips. The same technical view cautioned that a sustained move below 24,200 might lead to a loss of current momentum, prompting profit taking and a deeper retracement. With India VIX up 1.2 percent to 12.16, the options market is pricing in slightly higher near term swings, though volatility remains low by historical standards.
Sectorally, attention today is likely to gravitate toward IT and banking counters, given the global backdrop and the role these indices play in driving the benchmarks. The previous session’s choppy action did not produce outsized sector moves, but the fresh tailwind from US technology stocks and renewed bets on artificial intelligence globally could support Nifty IT at the open. Financials, represented by Nifty Bank and heavyweight lenders, will be watched for follow through to the FII and DII buying seen on Thursday.
Sectoral Performance
Key sectors and indices are poised to react to global tech optimism and domestic flows.
| Sector/Index | Direction | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty IT | likely up | Boost from US chip rally and AI trade revival in Asian markets. |
| Nifty Bank | watch for upside bias | Supported by continued FII and DII equity inflows. |
Asian markets were trading higher in early Friday action, offering a supportive backdrop for Indian equities. South Korean stocks posted a record intraday gain as investors renewed bets on the artificial intelligence trade after this week’s rout, lifting regional sentiment. Japan’s Topix was up 1.9 percent, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5 percent, while Hang Seng futures and Euro Stoxx 50 futures were each higher by about 0.5 percent. S&P 500 futures were up 0.3 percent as of mid morning Tokyo time, reinforcing the positive tone.
US equities closed sharply higher on Thursday, with chip stocks leading and Microsoft rallying after issuing a strong forecast that eased concerns about heavy spending on AI infrastructure. The rebound in technology shares helped restore risk appetite after recent volatility, a move that typically benefits Indian IT exporters through sentiment and valuation channels. The renewed AI trade in Asia, coupled with Wall Street’s tech-led gains, sets up Nifty IT for potential outperformance in early trade.
On the flows front, foreign portfolio investors were net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,623 crore on Thursday, as per exchange data. Domestic institutional investors also added to positions, with net equity purchases of Rs 1,864 crore. The twin buying from FIIs and DIIs provided a cushion against expiry-related volatility and is likely to underpin dips today, particularly in large cap banks and frontline stocks.
Key Market Statistics
Flows, volatility and currency moves from Thursday will inform today’s positioning.
| Statistic | Value/Change | Context |
|---|---|---|
| FPI net equity flows | Rs 3,623 crore bought | Foreign investors remained net buyers despite choppy trade. |
| DII net equity flows | Rs 1,864 crore bought | Domestic institutions supported the market into expiry. |
| India VIX | 12.16, up 1.2% | Slight rise in implied volatility, still at relatively low levels. |
| USD/INR | held below 96 | Rupee closed nearly flat, aided by likely RBI intervention. |
The Indian rupee ended Thursday’s session nearly unchanged, with sustained volatility in oil prices and corporate dollar demand offset by probable central bank intervention. Market participants noted that the currency managed to stay clear of the psychologically important 96 per dollar level, which traders view as a near term line in the sand. A stable rupee, if maintained today, should help reduce imported inflation concerns and support foreign investor confidence.
From a derivatives perspective, there are no stocks currently in the futures and options ban list, according to exchange data. This absence of F&O restrictions gives traders full flexibility to deploy index and stock strategies across the board. With monthly expiry now behind the market, fresh positions in index futures and options are likely to focus on the 24,200 support and 24,500 to 24,600 resistance corridor on the Nifty.
Globally, currency markets will be watched after the Japanese yen came under renewed pressure on Friday. The yen had surged in the previous session as Tokyo intervened ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, but has since given back part of those gains. While the direct impact on Indian equities is limited, swings in the yen and BOJ policy can influence broader risk sentiment and carry trades, which in turn affect emerging market flows.
For today’s session, traders will track whether the Nifty can build on the positive cues and test the 24,500 mark early in trade. A convincing move above 24,500, followed by a hold above 24,600, would open up room for the next leg higher, while failure to clear this band could see the index drift back toward 24,200. With global tech optimism, healthy institutional flows and low but rising volatility, the market setup points to an active day for index and sectoral traders rather than a quiet consolidation.
Disclaimer
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