Nifty eyes 24,200 breakout as crude slide, macros support

The Nifty 50 ended the holiday-shortened week at 24,056, up 0.18%, after a volatile expiry-led session where intraday gains above 24,200 were sold into, keeping that zone a key resistance. A sharp decline in crude oil prices, easing West Asia tensions and a stronger rupee underpinned sentiment, while investors now focus on Q1 updates, derivatives expiry and global macro data.

Market overview

Index	28 Jun Close	Move & % Change (week)	Comments
Sensex	77,100.47	+ approx. 300 pts (+0.39%)	Held gains despite profit booking in expiry week.
Nifty 50	24,056.00	+ approx. 43 pts (+0.18%)	Reclaimed and sustained above 24,000 psychological level.

Note: figures are approximate; final exchange data not available at time of publication.

• Nifty opened over 100 points higher on Thursday, hit 24,261, then gave up over 200 points.
• Both Nifty and Sensex logged gains in three of four sessions in a holiday-shortened week.
• Nifty posted a third straight weekly gain, with trade described as range bound.
• Markets were shut on Friday for Muharram, adding to profit booking ahead of the long weekend.
• Broader indices underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 down about 0.5%.

Key movers and flows

Top Gainers	Sector	Notable Factor
InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo)	Aviation	Among leading index gainers in Thursday’s session.
Mahindra & Mahindra	Auto	Supported Nifty advances during the week.
Maruti Suzuki	Auto	Part of the frontline gainers’ pack.

Top Losers	Sector	Notable Factor
ONGC	Oil & Gas	Declined amid softer crude prices.
Hindalco	Metals	Among top index laggards.
Power Grid	Utilities	Featured in major losers list.

• Auto, FMCG and Realty indices outperformed, aided by softer input costs and improving retail demand.
• Metal, Oil & Gas and IT indices ended lower, capping headline gains.
• Rupee appreciated 28 paise to 94.39 against the US dollar, supported by lower crude and likely RBI intervention.
• Foreign institutional investors turned net sellers for the latest week, offloading about ₹2,080 crore as per provisional data.
• Domestic institutional investors remained net buyers, investing about ₹11,100 crore during the same period.

Sectoral action

Sector / Index	Direction (approx.)	Key Drivers
Auto	up	Softer metal prices, easing supply constraints, better retail demand.
FMCG	up	Support from expectations of rural demand on monsoon progress.
Realty	up	Benefited from lower rate expectations and risk appetite.
Metal	down	Weakness amid global commodity volatility.
Oil & Gas	down	Impact of declining crude and sector-specific selling.
IT	down	Tracked global tech softness and mixed US cues.

• Monthly auto sales data for June, due July 1, will be watched for confirmation of demand trends.
• Monsoon spread and rural demand expectations remain important for FMCG and auto names.

Technical outlook: Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty

• Nifty 50

– Index failed to sustain above the 24,200 resistance and reversed from 24,261.

– Multiple analysts flag 24,200 to 24,250 as immediate resistance, with hurdles up to 24,261.

– Upside projections after a breakout range from 24,400 to 24,600.

– Key supports are cited around 24,000, 23,900, 23,850 and 23,800.

– One view pegs crucial support near 23,789, with a gap area down to 23,645.

– Nifty is holding above the 50-day EMA, with RSI in positive crossover, indicating intact momentum.

– “In the short term, the trend is likely to stay positive as long as the index holds above the support level of 23,800. On the higher end, the Nifty may move towards 24,500 in the near term.”

• Sensex

– Weekly resistance seen around 77,500 to 77,700.

– A sustained move above could target 78,000 to 79,000.

– Immediate support is in the 77,000 to 76,900 band, then 76,200 to 76,000.

• Bank Nifty

– Index opened the week near 57,907, with a low around 57,075 before recovering.

– Formed a Doji-like weekly candle, signalling temporary indecision after a rally.

– Trades above its 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMAs, highlighting strong trend strength.

– Weekly RSI near 57 suggests improving momentum.

– Immediate support lies in the 57,500 to 57,400 zone.

– Resistance is seen around 58,900 to 59,300.

– A sustained move above 59,000 could extend the uptrend.

– Bank Nifty is expected to continue its upmove as the broader trend remains constructive after a recent consolidation breakout.

Macro and global cues

Market / Asset	Movement	Notes
Brent crude	about -11% weekly	Fell back near pre-conflict levels as Hormuz traffic normalised.
WTI crude	about -9.6% weekly	Declined to around $69.23 per barrel.
US equities	mildly lower	S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged weekly losses; Dow near weekly gain.
European equities	-0.7% on STOXX 600	Pulled back from record highs, tech weakness weighed.

Note: figures are approximate; final exchange data not available at time of publication.

• Normalisation of tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz eased supply fears and crude prices.
• Lower crude is seen as positive for inflation, current account deficit and corporate margins in India.
• Investor focus includes US PCE, non-farm payrolls and unemployment data for cues on Fed policy.
• US inflation above 4% has reinforced expectations of a tighter Fed stance.
• Movements in US Treasury yields and the dollar index remain key for emerging market flows.
• Geopolitical risk persists after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets and incidents near Oman.

Domestic triggers for the week

• Q1 FY25 business updates and early results will be tracked for demand and margin commentary.
• June F&O expiry on Tuesday and quarterly portfolio rebalancing may add volatility.
• Foreign portfolio investor activity remains a swing factor, with recent selling moderating.
• Progress and distribution of the southwest monsoon will be watched for implications on rural demand and inflation.
• Hints of an India US trade agreement support sentiment, given potential benefits for exports and tariffs.

Trading approach highlighted by analysts

• Focus on fundamentally strong companies with healthy balance sheets and earnings visibility.
• Preference for large-cap financials, domestic cyclicals and beneficiaries of lower energy costs.
• Avoid excessive leverage and maintain strict risk management amid consolidation.
• Stock-specific strategies are advised while Nifty remains capped below 24,200 and supported near 23,800 to 24,000.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the key resistance level for Nifty in the coming week?

Nifty faces a strong resistance zone around 24,200 to 24,250, with Thursday’s high of 24,261 acting as an immediate hurdle. Several analysts suggest a sustained breakout above this band could open upside towards 24,400 to 24,600.

Which levels are critical supports for Nifty and Bank Nifty?

For Nifty, key supports lie around 24,000, 23,900 and 23,800, with some views extending down to 23,645. For Bank Nifty, immediate support is in the 57,500 to 57,400 zone, with broader structure remaining bullish above these levels.

How are crude oil prices influencing the Indian market outlook?

Brent and WTI crude have fallen back towards pre-conflict levels as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalised. This decline eases concerns on imported inflation, the current account deficit and corporate input costs, providing a macro tailwind for Indian equities as long as prices stay contained.