Indian Market Outlook – 12 February 2026
Top indices
| Index | Close | % change | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Sensex | 83,674.92 | −0.66% | Benchmarks sold off as IT heavyweights dragged indices lower. |
| Nifty 50 | 25,807.20 | −0.57% | The index traded between 25,752 and 25,907 and closed near the day’s low. |
Note: Dashes indicate values not reported; percentage figures reflect the change versus the previous close.
Sectoral performance
| Sector/Index | Trend | Key notes |
|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | ▼ −5.5% | IT stocks plunged as investors worried that rapid advances in generative AI and a strong U.S. jobs report would delay Federal Reserve rate cuts and hurt outsourced spending. Large caps such as Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech fell sharply. |
| Realty | ▼ −1.5% | Profit‑taking in realty names pulled the index down. High mortgage rates and the absence of fresh triggers kept sentiment muted. |
| Oil & Gas | ▼ −1.2% | Declined in line with crude‑price volatility and profit‑booking after recent gains. |
| Auto | Slight ▼ | Mixed action; index held up better than the market but drifted lower as investors rotated into defensives. |
| Metals | Steady | Prices remained range‑bound amid mixed global commodity cues. |
| Financial Services | ▲ +0.4% | Banks and NBFCs outperformed. Renewed buying in ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance and SBI cushioned the decline in benchmarks. |
Key statistics
- Market breadth: Decliners outnumbered gainers; both mid‑ and small‑cap indices closed lower, reflecting broad profit‑booking.
- Intra‑day range: Nifty oscillated between 25,752 and 25,907, showing intraday volatility and failing to sustain above the 25,850–25,900 resistance zone.
- Rupee: The Indian rupee ended at ₹90.59 per U.S. dollar, up 0.1% from ₹90.70 in the previous session as forex markets took comfort from incoming foreign inflows.
- U.S. dollar index: Strengthened after robust U.S. employment data tempered expectations of imminent rate cuts.
- Volatility: India VIX ticked higher as traders priced in upcoming inflation numbers and the possibility of extended consolidation.
Top gainers and losers
| Top gainers | Sector | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Bajaj Finance | Financial services | Stock climbed after upbeat commentary on asset quality and credit growth. The index heavyweight provided support to benchmarks. |
| ICICI Bank | Financial services | Continued buying from domestic institutions and expectations of stable margins pushed the stock higher. |
| Bharat Electronics (BEL) | Capital goods | Shares rose on hopes of robust defence order‑book and favourable government spending. |
| Trent Ltd | Retail | Strong same‑store sales growth and optimism over expansion plans helped the stock log gains. |
| State Bank of India (SBI) | PSU Banking | Investor interest continued after solid quarterly results and lower slippages. |
| Top losers | Sector | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Tech Mahindra | Information Technology | Sank as investors worried about margin compression and slower client spending amid AI disruption. |
| Infosys | Information Technology | Fell sharply after a global sell‑off in technology shares and as strong U.S. data dampened rate‑cut hopes. |
| Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) | Information Technology | Stock was hit by the sectoral sell‑off despite stable earnings outlook. |
| HCL Technologies | Information Technology | Declined on similar concerns over slower growth and pricing pressure. |
| Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) | Auto | Weakened on profit‑taking and cautious outlook for rural demand. |
What moved the market
- Sharp sell‑off in IT heavyweights: Investors rotated away from information‑technology stocks after generative AI developments stoked fears that tech clients might delay spending on legacy services. Strong U.S. job growth led investors to assume the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer, putting pressure on IT companies that earn most of their revenue from the U.S. market.
- Profit‑booking after recent rally: Both Sensex and Nifty had approached record levels in the previous sessions; traders chose to lock in gains amid lack of incremental positive triggers.
- Mixed corporate earnings: Hindustan Unilever’s earnings were underwhelming; revenue growth of ~4% and modest margin improvement led to a decline in the stock despite a one‑off profit boost from the ice‑cream business demerger. The weak response weighed on consumer staples.
- Rise in bond yields: U.S. Treasury yields firmed after the strong jobs report, leading to risk‑off sentiment globally. Investors feared that a longer period of high rates could slow global growth and hit export‑oriented sectors.
- Geopolitical and macro concerns: Persistent tension in West Asia and uncertainty around crude prices kept investors cautious.
Global cues
- Asia–Pacific equities: Most Asian indices were higher, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi hitting record levels. However, Indian markets diverged due to sector‑specific issues.
- Europe and U.S. futures: Stoxx Europe 600 gained about 0.4%; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were modestly positive as investors awaited U.S. inflation data.
- Commodities: Crude oil oscillated between gains and losses amid supply concerns and mixed demand indicators. Gold traded slightly lower due to a stronger dollar.
- Currency and bond markets: The U.S. dollar index was firm; 10‑year Treasury yields hovered near multi‑week highs as traders pushed back expectations of rate cuts to later in the year.
Stocks to watch
- Hindustan Unilever (HUL): Investors will monitor the stock after its December‑quarter results showed only low‑single‑digit revenue growth despite one‑off profit gains. Management commentary on demand trends and price cuts will be key.
- Muthoot Finance: The gold financier’s quarterly profit surged 95% year‑on‑year to roughly ₹2,656 crore, signalling strong loan growth and margin expansion. The company could remain in focus.
- Ashok Leyland: Revenue grew 22% year‑on‑year to about ₹11,534 crore, with EBITDA margins improving and net profit rising to ~₹796 crore. Shares could see buying interest on positive commercial‑vehicle demand trends.
- Kernex Microsystems: The railway‑technology firm bagged a ₹4.11 billion order for KAVACH loco equipment. The order strengthens its pipeline and may prompt re‑rating.
- Lenskart Solutions: The eyewear retailer’s revenue jumped ~38% year‑on‑year and net profit surged more than 70 times to ₹131 crore thanks to expansion and improved margins. The stock may remain in play.
- IT heavyweights (TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra): After the heavy sell‑off, any recovery or further decline will depend on management commentary on U.S. client demand and the evolving AI landscape.
Corporate updates
- Muthoot Finance reported a 95% year‑on‑year jump in consolidated net profit to around ₹2,656 crore in the December quarter, driven by higher loan volumes and stable asset quality.
- Kernex Microsystems received a ₹4.11 billion order to supply KAVACH locomotive equipment, boosting its order book.
- Ashok Leyland posted a 22% rise in revenue and better margins, reflecting strong truck sales and cost control.
- Lenskart Solutions saw revenue up ~38% and net profit surge more than 70‑fold to about ₹131 crore due to scale benefits and improved operating efficiency.
- Hindustan Unilever delivered revenue growth of roughly 4%, EBITDA of about ₹3,640 crore (margin ~23.3%) and a net profit jump driven by a one‑time gain from the ice‑cream business demerger. Underlying volume growth remained muted, and the stock reacted negatively.
Outlook for 13 February 2026
Technical levels
- Nifty 50: The index continues to form a lower‑high–lower‑low pattern within a falling channel. Key resistance lies in the 25,850–25,900 zone; a decisive close above this cluster may open the way to 26,000. On the downside, support is situated around 25,685 (50‑day exponential moving average) and then 25,583 (100‑day EMA). A break below these levels could drag the index toward 25,400–25,500.
- Sensex: Resistance is near 83,900–84,000; support is seen at 83,100–82,800. Failure to hold above 83,000 may invite further selling pressure.
- Nifty Bank: Although financials outperformed today, the index faces resistance around 57,500 and has support near 56,000.
Expected tone
The market is likely to open on a cautious note. Upcoming domestic inflation data and global macro releases (particularly U.S. inflation numbers) could set the tone. Given that the Nifty has slipped below its short‑term moving averages and momentum indicators are weakening, traders may expect range‑bound to mildly bearish trade in the near term. Stock‑specific action will continue around earnings announcements and corporate developments.
Investors should monitor:
- Domestic CPI and IIP data: Readings due tomorrow will influence expectations around the Reserve Bank of India’s policy path. A benign inflation print could provide relief, while any surprise uptick may cause further volatility.
- U.S. inflation and bond yields: Higher‑than‑expected U.S. CPI data could push global yields up again, weighing on risk assets.
- FII flows: The direction of foreign institutional investors will be closely watched; sustained selling could exacerbate weakness in large‑cap stocks.
- Sector rotation: Financials and capital goods appear relatively resilient, whereas IT and consumer staples remain under pressure. Position sizes should be managed carefully until clear trends emerge.
Overall, the near‑term bias remains cautious with heightened volatility ahead of key macro releases. Traders should look for confirmation above resistance levels for bullish positions and use dips near support zones for selective buying.
