{"id":9742,"date":"2025-12-31T11:02:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T11:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/?p=9742"},"modified":"2025-12-31T11:03:01","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T11:03:01","slug":"india-market-outlook-31-december-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/market-updates\/india-market-outlook-31-december-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"India Market Outlook – 31\u00a0December\u00a02025"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"nifty<\/figure>\n\n\n

Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Indian equities capped calendar\u2011year 2025 on a strong footing. After drifting lower for four consecutive sessions, the BSE Sensex<\/strong> and Nifty 50<\/strong> rebounded sharply on the last trading day, buoyed by strength in metal and oil stocks following the government\u2019s decision to impose a safeguard duty on certain steel imports. Softer crude prices and bargain buying ahead of the new year helped the benchmarks overcome persistent foreign institutional selling. The broader market outperformed; mid\u2011 and small\u2011cap indices each added roughly 1 % as market breadth turned decisively positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top indices (31 Dec 2025 close)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Index<\/th>Open<\/th>High<\/th>Low<\/th>Close<\/th>Change<\/th>% change<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
BSE Sensex<\/strong><\/td>84\u202f793.58<\/td>85\u202f437.17<\/td>84\u202f705.57<\/td>85\u202f220.60<\/strong><\/td>\u25b2 545.52 pts<\/td>+0.64 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Nifty 50<\/strong><\/td>25\u202f971.05<\/td>26\u202f187.95<\/td>25\u202f969.00<\/td>26\u202f129.60<\/strong><\/td>\u25b2 190.75 pts<\/td>+0.74 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Nifty Bank<\/strong><\/td>59\u202f194.60<\/td>59\u202f766.20<\/td>59\u202f187.10<\/td>59\u202f581.85<\/strong><\/td>\u25b2 410.60 pts<\/td>+0.69 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sectoral performance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Sector\/index<\/th>Direction\/performance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Oil & Gas<\/strong><\/td>Rose ~2.5 %<\/strong>; refining margins and expectations of stable demand lifted energy stocks.<\/td><\/tr>
Metal<\/strong><\/td>Gained about 1 %<\/strong> after the government announced a 12 % safeguard duty on some steel imports; JSW Steel and Tata Steel surged.<\/td><\/tr>
Media, capital goods, realty, private bank, PSU bank, consumer durables, power<\/strong><\/td>Each climbed around 1 %<\/strong> amid broad\u2011based buying.<\/td><\/tr>
IT & telecom<\/strong><\/td>Only sectors to end slightly lower as profit\u2011taking hit heavyweight technology names.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Key statistics<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Metric<\/th>Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Advance\/decline ratio<\/strong><\/td>2\u202f555 stocks advanced, 1\u202f330 declined, 123 unchanged \u2013 signifying strong market breadth.<\/td><\/tr>
Market capitalisation breadth<\/strong><\/td>Both BSE mid\u2011cap and small\u2011cap indices gained roughly 1 %<\/strong>, outperforming large\u2011caps.<\/td><\/tr>
Rupee<\/strong><\/td>The rupee closed at \u20b989.87 per US $<\/strong>, slightly weaker than the previous close of \u20b989.78.<\/td><\/tr>
FII flows (30 Dec 2025)<\/strong><\/td>Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of \u20b93,844 crore<\/strong> in the cash segment.<\/td><\/tr>
DII flows (30 Dec 2025)<\/strong><\/td>Domestic institutions were net buyers of \u20b96,159.81 crore<\/strong>, cushioning the market against FII selling.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Top gainers (Nifty 50)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Stock<\/th>Closing price (\u20b9)<\/th>Change (%)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
JSW Steel<\/strong><\/td>1\u202f164.80<\/td>+4.79 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Tata Steel<\/strong><\/td>180.08<\/td>+2.43 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)<\/strong><\/td>240.38<\/td>+2.43 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Kotak Mahindra Bank<\/strong><\/td>2\u202f201.10<\/td>+2.25 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Reliance Industries<\/strong><\/td>1\u202f570.40<\/td>+1.99 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
SBI Life Insurance<\/strong><\/td>2\u202f034.90<\/td>+1.97 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Titan Company<\/strong><\/td>4\u202f051.50<\/td>+1.95 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Top losers (Nifty 50)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Stock<\/th>Closing price (\u20b9)<\/th>Change (%)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)<\/strong><\/td>3\u202f206.20<\/td>\u20131.25 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Tech Mahindra<\/strong><\/td>1\u202f590.90<\/td>\u20130.85 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Grasim Industries<\/strong><\/td>2\u202f829.00<\/td>\u20130.45 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Infosys<\/strong><\/td>1\u202f615.40<\/td>\u20130.38 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Bajaj Finance<\/strong><\/td>986.80<\/td>\u20130.25 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Wipro<\/strong><\/td>263.28<\/td>\u20130.14 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Sun Pharmaceutical<\/strong><\/td>1\u202f719.70<\/td>\u20130.03 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What moved the market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Government steel tariffs:<\/strong> A late\u2011year policy decision to impose a three\u2011year safeguard duty of 12\u00a0% on certain steel imports triggered a rally in metal stocks. JSW\u00a0Steel and Tata\u00a0Steel were the day\u2019s top performers and helped pull the Nifty above 26,100.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Soft crude prices:<\/strong> Brent crude was near $61.27\/bbl<\/strong> \u2013 down more than 10\u00a0% for 2025 \u2013 easing inflation fears and improving the outlook for oil marketing and energy stocks. The Nifty Oil\u00a0&\u00a0Gas index outperformed, rising ~2.5\u00a0%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Domestic liquidity vs. FII selling:<\/strong> Foreign investors continued to sell ahead of year\u2011end, yet strong buying by domestic institutions and retail participants absorbed the supply. Positive sentiment ahead of the upcoming Union Budget and expectations of a rebound in earnings in 2026 supported the move.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Macro cues:<\/strong> The rupee weakened marginally to \u20b989.87 per USD but remained within a narrow range. Easing precious\u2011metals prices and stable bond yields reduced some pressure on equities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Global cues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Asian markets:<\/strong> On the last trading day of the year, the MSCI Asia\u2011Pacific ex\u2011Japan index slipped ~0.2\u00a0% but remained on track for a 27\u00a0% gain in 2025<\/strong>, its biggest annual jump since 2017. The rally was driven by AI\u2011related chip stocks; South Korea\u2019s Kospi surged 76\u00a0% during the year. Japanese markets were closed for New Year\u2019s Eve, keeping volumes thin across the region.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Precious metals:<\/strong> Gold was headed for a 66\u00a0% annual gain<\/strong> and silver for a 160\u00a0% surge<\/strong> after a spectacular rally in 2025. Both metals faced profit\u2011taking on the final session. The dollar was on course for a 9.4\u00a0% annual decline<\/strong>, supporting the euro and sterling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Oil:<\/strong> Global crude prices were down more than 10\u00a0%<\/strong> in 2025, with Brent on track for a third straight yearly drop as supply exceeded demand despite geopolitical tensions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • US & European markets:<\/strong> Wall\u00a0Street ended slightly lower on Tuesday; losses in technology and financial shares offset gains in communication services. Global equities, however, are poised for their best year in six years, underpinned by expectations of further US interest\u2011rate cuts and enthusiasm around artificial\u2011intelligence themes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Stocks to watch \/ corporate updates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • RITES\u00a0Ltd<\/strong> \u2013 The state\u2011owned engineering consultancy firm secured a US\u00a0$3.6\u00a0million contract<\/strong> from Berhard Development Corporation in Zimbabwe to supply Cape\u2011gauge diesel\u2011electric locomotives. The order will be executed in about three months.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Bharat\u00a0Forge<\/strong> \u2013 The company signed a \u20b91,662\u00a0crore<\/strong> agreement with the Ministry of Defence to supply close\u2011quarter battle carbines to the Indian Army and Navy. The deal strengthens its defence manufacturing portfolio.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • InterGlobe\u00a0Aviation (IndiGo)<\/strong> \u2013 The airline received a \u20b9458.26\u00a0crore<\/strong> GST demand notice for FY2019\u20132023. It claims the order is incorrect and plans to challenge it through appropriate channels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Lupin<\/strong> \u2013 The drugmaker said its subsidiary Nanomi\u00a0BV will complete the acquisition of Dutch ophthalmology firm VISUfarma BV<\/strong> by 28\u00a0February\u00a02026<\/strong>, pushing back the original December deadline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Muthoot\u00a0Finance<\/strong> \u2013 The non\u2011bank finance company completed the allotment of 325,000 equity shares<\/strong> in subsidiary Muthoot\u00a0Money\u00a0Ltd to fund business growth and repay loans.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Power\u00a0Grid\u00a0Corp. of India<\/strong> \u2013 The transmission major received a letter of award for developing a battery energy storage system<\/strong> in Andhra\u00a0Pradesh under a tariff\u2011based competitive bidding process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Privi Speciality\u00a0Chemicals<\/strong> \u2013 A promoter group shareholder is set to divest up to 6.32\u00a0%<\/strong> of equity through a block deal worth roughly \u20b9700\u00a0crore<\/strong> at a floor price between \u20b92,835\u20132,850 per share.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Taj\u00a0GVK Hotels\u00a0&\u00a0Resorts<\/strong> \u2013 Promoter Shalini\u00a0Bhupal acquired 25.52\u00a0%<\/strong> stake (1.6\u00a0crore shares) in an inter\u2011se transfer at \u20b9370 per share<\/strong>. A termination agreement among the various promoters was executed after the transaction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Outlook for the next trading session<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        • Market tone:<\/strong> With the final session of 2025 closing on a positive note, investors are expected to start 2026 cautiously optimistic. Thin volumes due to holiday\u2011related closures may lead to a range\u2011bound trade, and stock\u2011specific action will likely dominate. Macroeconomic events such as December auto sales data and the beginning of the Q3 corporate results season will gradually dictate sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Nifty\u00a050 technical levels:<\/strong>\n
            \n
          • Support:<\/strong> The key demand zone sits between 25,800\u201325,900<\/strong> (reinforced by the 50\u2011day exponential moving average and a rising trendline). Holding this zone could prompt a bounce.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Immediate resistance:<\/strong> 26,150\u201326,200<\/strong> remains a significant supply band. A decisive close above this range is needed to revive a bullish trend and could open the path to 26,300<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Outlook:<\/strong> The near\u2011term bias is neutral. Expect Nifty to oscillate between 25,900 and 26,300<\/strong> with a positive tilt if the index sustains above 26,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Bank\u00a0Nifty technical levels:<\/strong>\n
              \n
            • Support:<\/strong> 58,800\u201359,000<\/strong>. Tuesday\u2019s bullish engulfing candle suggests buying interest around this zone.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Resistance:<\/strong> 59,400\u201359,500<\/strong>. A breakout above 59,500 may target 59,800\u201360,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Outlook:<\/strong> The banking index shows relative resilience and may trade within 58,750\u201359,400<\/strong>. A sustained move above 59,500 would turn the tone distinctly bullish.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Expected market tone:<\/strong> The market is likely to remain stock\u2011specific and moderately positive<\/strong>, with metals, banks and auto names attracting interest. However, investors will remain mindful of continuing FII selling and will await firm triggers from Q3 earnings and budget expectations before taking aggressive positions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Overview Indian equities capped calendar\u2011year 2025 on a strong footing. After drifting lower for four consecutive sessions, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rebounded sharply on the last trading day, buoyed by strength in metal and oil stocks following the government\u2019s decision to impose a safeguard duty on certain steel imports. Softer crude prices and bargain buying ahead […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ayudawp_aiss_exclude":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-updates"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9742"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9742\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9743,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9742\/revisions\/9743"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}