{"id":8414,"date":"2025-09-01T11:40:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T11:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/?p=8414"},"modified":"2025-09-01T11:40:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T11:40:08","slug":"india-market-outlook-1-september-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/market-updates\/india-market-outlook-1-september-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"India Market Outlook – 1 September\u00a02025"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"nifty<\/figure>\n\n\n

Market snapshot – Index\/benchmark <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Indices<\/th>Closing value<\/th>Daily change<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Nifty 50<\/strong><\/td>24,625.05<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 0.81 %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Sensex (BSE 30)<\/strong><\/td>80,364.49<\/td>\u2191 0.70 %<\/td><\/tr>
BSE Mid\u2011cap<\/strong><\/td>47,609.00 (approx)<\/td>\u2191 1.64 %<\/td><\/tr>
BSE Small\u2011cap<\/strong><\/td>52,216.64<\/td>\u2191 1.49 %<\/td><\/tr>
Nifty Bank<\/strong><\/td>54,002.45<\/td>\u2191 0.65 %<\/td><\/tr>
Nifty IT<\/strong><\/td>35,740.65<\/td>\u2191 1.59 %<\/td><\/tr>
Nifty Auto<\/strong><\/td>22,620.70 (approx)<\/td>\u2191 2.80 %<\/td><\/tr>
India VIX (volatility index)<\/strong><\/td>~12.4<\/td>\u2193 3.0 % (lower volatility)<\/td><\/tr>
USD\/INR<\/strong><\/td>around \u20b982.5 per US$<\/td>marginally stronger<\/td><\/tr>
Market breadth<\/strong><\/td>1,945 stocks advanced vs 862 declines<\/td>Positive breadth<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note: closing values are approximate because some sectoral indices are rounded to available data.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sectoral performance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
NSE\/BSE sectoral index<\/th>Performance on 1 Sep 2025<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Auto<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 2.80 %<\/strong> \u2013 strongest performing sector; led by upbeat monthly sales, farm\u2011equipment demand and GST\u2011cut hopes.<\/td><\/tr>
Consumer Durables<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 2.08 %<\/strong> \u2013 demand for discretionary products remained strong.<\/td><\/tr>
Metals<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 1.64 %<\/strong> \u2013 benefitted from higher base\u2011metal prices and stronger Chinese demand.<\/td><\/tr>
Information Technology<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 1.59 %<\/strong> \u2013 U.S. PCE data raised hopes of a Fed rate cut, supporting IT exporters.<\/td><\/tr>
Oil & Gas<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 1.35 %<\/strong> \u2013 crude prices steady; upstream names gained.<\/td><\/tr>
PSU Bank<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 1.11 % \u2013 state\u2011run lenders rose on strong credit growth.<\/td><\/tr>
Realty<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 1.04 % \u2013 robust housing demand and falling yields.<\/td><\/tr>
Financial Services\/Bank<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 0.65\u20130.70 % \u2013 heavyweights recovered but under\u2011performed broader indices.<\/td><\/tr>
Pharma<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 0.12 %<\/strong> \u2013 only notable loser; profit\u2011taking pulled down defensive stocks.<\/td><\/tr>
Media<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 0.32 %<\/strong> \u2013 marginal decline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Top gainers and losers (Nifty 50 constituents)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Top gainers<\/th>Price move<\/th>Key driver<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Bajaj Auto<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 ~4.0 %<\/strong><\/td>August sales jumped and rural demand remained robust.<\/td><\/tr>
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 ~3.5 %<\/strong><\/td>Tractor and SUV volumes beat expectations; optimism over EV initiatives.<\/td><\/tr>
Hero MotoCorp<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 ~3.2 %<\/strong><\/td>Strong motorcycle sales and improved margins.<\/td><\/tr>
Tata Motors<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 ~2.6 %<\/td>Strong domestic CV\/EV volumes; Jaguar\u2011Land Rover outlook improved.<\/td><\/tr>
NTPC\/Titan\/Trent<\/strong><\/td>\u2191 2.3 \u2013 2.6 %<\/td>Power demand remained strong (NTPC); robust jewellery sales (Titan); retail expansion (Trent).<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Top losers<\/th>Price move<\/th>Reason<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Sun Pharma<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 ~1.9 %<\/strong><\/td>Profit\u2011booking after recent rally.<\/td><\/tr>
ITC<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 ~1.0 %<\/strong><\/td>Mild correction amid concerns over cigarette tax hike rumours.<\/td><\/tr>
Hindustan Unilever<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 ~0.5 %<\/strong><\/td>Higher input cost worries; investors rotated into cyclicals.<\/td><\/tr>
IndusInd Bank<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 ~0.5 %<\/td>Minor profit\u2011taking; valuations deemed rich.<\/td><\/tr>
Adani Enterprises\/Bharti Airtel<\/strong><\/td>\u2193 0.3\u20130.5 %<\/td>Stock\u2011specific consolidation after strong August performance.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Key statistics and macro backdrop<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Gross Domestic Product (Q1\u00a0FY26):<\/strong> India\u2019s first\u2011quarter GDP grew 7.8\u00a0%<\/strong> year\u2011on\u2011year (vs consensus around 6.7\u00a0%), reflecting strong domestic consumption and investment spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Manufacturing PMI:<\/strong> India\u2019s manufacturing Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index climbed to 59.3<\/strong> in August, the highest since February\u00a02008, indicating robust factory activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Institutional flows:<\/strong> The latest available data (29\u00a0Aug\u00a02025) show Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)<\/strong> net sold \u20b98,312\u00a0crore<\/strong>, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)<\/strong> net bought \u20b911,488\u00a0crore<\/strong> in the cash market. Persistent FII outflows remain a headwind, but strong DII inflows and retail participation supported prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Advance\/decline ratio:<\/strong> With 1,945 advancing shares versus 862 declines, market breadth was widely positive and mid\u2011 and small\u2011cap stocks outperformed large caps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Market capitalisation:<\/strong> Investor wealth (BSE market capitalisation) rose by over \u20b95\u00a0lakh\u00a0crore<\/strong> during the session as indices recovered from three days of losses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Volatility:<\/strong> India VIX slipped below 12.5, signalling reduced near\u2011term volatility.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    What moved the market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Robust domestic growth and upbeat economic data:<\/strong> The release of India\u2019s Q1\u00a0FY26 GDP growth at 7.8\u00a0% beat expectations and boosted confidence in the economy. August manufacturing PMI at 59.3, the highest in 17\u00a0years, signalled broad-based expansion in factory output.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Auto sales and consumption optimism:<\/strong> Monthly auto sales data showed strong growth across two\u2011wheelers, passenger cars and tractors. The possibility of GST rationalisation in the upcoming meeting and festive\u2011season demand buoyed consumer\u2011durable and auto stocks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Dovish global cues:<\/strong> U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data for July cooled to 0.2\u00a0% month\u2011on\u2011month and 2.6\u00a0% year\u2011on\u2011year, fuelling expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. European PMI data showed the eurozone factory sector expanding for the first time since mid\u20112022. These factors lifted risk appetite globally and particularly benefitted India\u2019s export\u2011oriented IT stocks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. Tariff and policy developments:<\/strong> A U.S. appeals court ruled that former President Trump\u2019s tariff hikes were illegal, although the duties remain until mid\u2011October. This raised hopes of eventual relief for Indian exporters. Additionally, talk of rationalising India\u2019s multiple GST slabs and simplifying taxes bolstered the consumption theme.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. Liquidity support from domestic investors:<\/strong> Despite sustained FII selling, DIIs and retail investors continued to accumulate equities. This liquidity, especially in mid\u2011 and small\u2011caps, helped the broader market outperform the blue\u2011chip indices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    6. Profit\u2011taking in defensives:<\/strong> Some defensive sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals and consumer staples, witnessed profit\u2011booking as investors rotated funds into cyclical sectors like autos, metals and durables.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Global cues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • Wall Street<\/strong> \u2013 The S&P\u00a0500 and Dow Jones were near record highs after softer U.S. PCE inflation data, but traders remained cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data due later in the week. Bond yields edged higher but expectations of an autumn rate cut persisted.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Europe<\/strong> \u2013 Eurozone manufacturing PMI returned to expansion for the first time since mid\u20112022, supporting European equities. However, investors awaited further data on inflation and growth and remained mindful of the impact of U.S. tariffs on European exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Asia<\/strong> \u2013 In Asia, Japanese markets consolidated as investors locked in gains in high\u2011flying tech stocks. Chinese equities were resilient due to policy support and hopes of further stimulus. Oil prices traded in a narrow range around US$83\/bbl; a small rise in U.S. crude inventories and concerns over higher supply offset worries about Russian supply disruptions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Currencies and commodities<\/strong> \u2013 The U.S. dollar index held steady around 98.1; the Indian rupee appreciated marginally to around \u20b982.5 per US$. Gold remained firm near a four\u2011month high on rate\u2011cut bets, while silver hit a 14\u2011year high. These moves indicated cautious optimism across global markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Stocks to watch and corporate updates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
        Company\/stock<\/th>Update and rationale<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
        Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL)<\/strong><\/td>Signed a licensing agreement with the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) to produce fused\u2011silica radomes used in missiles and fighter aircraft, signalling entry into high\u2011value defence components.<\/td><\/tr>
        RBL Bank<\/strong><\/td>Seeking shareholder approval to raise up to \u20b96,500 crore<\/strong> through a combination of equity and debt instruments; reflects efforts to strengthen capital adequacy and support growth.<\/td><\/tr>
        PG Electroplast (PG Technoplast)<\/strong><\/td>Its subsidiary signed a memorandum of understanding with the Maharashtra government to set up a \u20b91,000 crore<\/strong> consumer\u2011electronics facility under the state\u2019s industrial policy.<\/td><\/tr>
        NHPC<\/strong><\/td>Revised its borrowing plan and will raise up to \u20b910,000 crore<\/strong> through debt to fund ongoing hydropower projects.<\/td><\/tr>
        Torrent Power<\/strong><\/td>Received a letter of award from the Madhya Pradesh government to develop a 1,600 MW<\/strong> coal\u2011based power project, positioning it for expansion in conventional power generation.<\/td><\/tr>
        Ather Energy (unlisted)<\/strong><\/td>Announced plans to expand its retail network from ~200 to 700 outlets<\/strong> by FY 26 after launching new electric scooters, signalling aggressive growth in India\u2019s EV two\u2011wheeler market.<\/td><\/tr>
        Sterlite Technologies<\/strong><\/td>A U.S. court ordered its Indian subsidiary to pay US$96.5 million<\/strong> in damages in a contract dispute. Although the company plans to appeal, the sizeable liability may keep the stock volatile.<\/td><\/tr>
        Other themes to monitor<\/strong><\/td>Investors remain focused on Reliance Industries\u2019 annual general meeting (AGM) outcomes, including updates on the Jio AirFiber roll\u2011out and energy transition plans; HDFC Bank\u2019s loan growth guidance after the HDFC merger; and the progress of micro\u2011cap initial public offerings (IPOs) in September.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        Technical view and outlook for tomorrow (2 September 2025)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        • Trend:<\/strong> After three days of declines, the Nifty\u00a050 formed an inverted hammer pattern on the daily chart and reclaimed 24,600. The rebound came on above\u2011average volumes and strong market breadth, suggesting bulls regained near\u2011term control. However, the index still trades below its 20\u2011day and 50\u2011day exponential moving averages, and the relative strength index (RSI) remains near 40, signalling that the medium\u2011term momentum is fragile.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Key levels for Nifty\u00a050:<\/strong>\n
            \n
          • Resistance:<\/strong> The index faces immediate resistance at 24,650\u201324,700<\/strong>. A decisive break above 24,850<\/strong> could open the way to the psychological 25,250\u201325,500<\/strong> range. The 50\u2011day EMA near 24,850 remains a critical hurdle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Support:<\/strong> Immediate support lies at 24,500<\/strong>, followed by 24,300\u201324,250<\/strong>. A fall below 24,250 could drag the index towards 24,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Key levels for Bank\u00a0Nifty:<\/strong>\n
              \n
            • Resistance:<\/strong> Resistance is placed around 54,500\u201354,600<\/strong>. A breakout above this zone could push the banking index towards 55,200\u201355,500<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Support:<\/strong> Initial support lies at 53,600\u201353,500<\/strong>, followed by a stronger base near 52,900\u201352,400<\/strong>. A sustained drop below 53,500 may trigger further downside.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Expected market tone:<\/strong> The broader trend remains range\u2011bound with a slight positive bias. As the index has reclaimed support and momentum indicators are improving, traders may look for opportunities to buy on dips near support levels. However, valuations are elevated and FIIs remain net sellers, so gains could be capped around 24,850\u201325,000. Market participants will closely watch U.S. jobs data, crude\u2011oil price movement and fresh domestic macro indicators. The tone is likely to remain cautiously optimistic<\/strong>, with auto, capital\u2011goods, power and select mid\u2011cap stocks continuing to attract buying interest while defensive sectors may remain subdued.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Market snapshot – Index\/benchmark Indices Closing value Daily change Nifty 50 24,625.05 \u2191 0.81 % Sensex (BSE 30) 80,364.49 \u2191 0.70 % BSE Mid\u2011cap 47,609.00 (approx) \u2191 1.64 % BSE Small\u2011cap 52,216.64 \u2191 1.49 % Nifty Bank 54,002.45 \u2191 0.65 % Nifty IT 35,740.65 \u2191 1.59 % Nifty Auto 22,620.70 (approx) \u2191 2.80 % India VIX (volatility index) ~12.4 \u2193 3.0 % (lower volatility) USD\/INR around \u20b982.5 per US$ marginally stronger Market breadth 1,945 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ayudawp_aiss_exclude":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-updates"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8414"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8415,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8414\/revisions\/8415"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lemonn.co.in\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}